Sunday, February 28, 2010
7 Earthquakes That Shook the Bible
Biblical Earthquakes are referred to at least 7 major times in the Bible, from Exodus to The Tribulation. Of course there are many more mentions of the earthquake in biblical times, but these are some that span the entire bible.
1.
Exodus 19:18
Mount Sinai was covered with smoke, because the LORD descended on it in fire. The smoke billowed up from it like smoke from a furnace, the whole mountain trembled violently,
2.
1 Kings 19:11
The LORD said, "Go out and stand on the mountain in the presence of the LORD, for the LORD is about to pass by."
Then a great and powerful wind tore the mountains apart and shattered the rocks before the LORD, but the LORD was not in the wind. After the wind there was an earthquake, but the LORD was not in the earthquake. After the earthquake came a fire, but the LORD was not in the fire. And after the fire came a gentle whisper. When Elijah heard it, he pulled his cloak over his face and went out and stood at the mouth of the cave.
Then a voice said to him, "What are you doing here, Elijah?"
3.
Zechariah 14:5
Then you will flee to the valley of my mountains, because this valley between the mountains will go as far as Azel. You will flee as you did from the earthquake at the time of King Uzziah of Judah. The LORD my God will come, and all the holy ones will be with him.
4.
Matthew 27:54
Now the centurion, and those who were with him keeping guard over Jesus, when they saw the earthquake and the things that were happening, became very frightened and said, "Truly this was the Son of God!"
5.
Matthew 28:2-4
There was a violent earthquake, for an angel of the Lord came down from heaven and, going to the tomb, rolled back the stone and sat on it. His appearance was like lightning, and his clothes were white as snow. The guards were so afraid of him that they shook and became like dead men.
6.
Acts 16:26
Suddenly there was such a violent earthquake that the foundations of the prison were shaken. At once all the prison doors flew open, and everybody's chains came loose.
7.
Revelations 6:12
And I saw when it opened the sixth seal, and there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as hair sackcloth, and the whole moon became as blood...
1.
Exodus 19:18
Mount Sinai was covered with smoke, because the LORD descended on it in fire. The smoke billowed up from it like smoke from a furnace, the whole mountain trembled violently,
2.
1 Kings 19:11
The LORD said, "Go out and stand on the mountain in the presence of the LORD, for the LORD is about to pass by."
Then a great and powerful wind tore the mountains apart and shattered the rocks before the LORD, but the LORD was not in the wind. After the wind there was an earthquake, but the LORD was not in the earthquake. After the earthquake came a fire, but the LORD was not in the fire. And after the fire came a gentle whisper. When Elijah heard it, he pulled his cloak over his face and went out and stood at the mouth of the cave.
Then a voice said to him, "What are you doing here, Elijah?"
3.
Zechariah 14:5
Then you will flee to the valley of my mountains, because this valley between the mountains will go as far as Azel. You will flee as you did from the earthquake at the time of King Uzziah of Judah. The LORD my God will come, and all the holy ones will be with him.
4.
Matthew 27:54
Now the centurion, and those who were with him keeping guard over Jesus, when they saw the earthquake and the things that were happening, became very frightened and said, "Truly this was the Son of God!"
5.
Matthew 28:2-4
There was a violent earthquake, for an angel of the Lord came down from heaven and, going to the tomb, rolled back the stone and sat on it. His appearance was like lightning, and his clothes were white as snow. The guards were so afraid of him that they shook and became like dead men.
6.
Acts 16:26
Suddenly there was such a violent earthquake that the foundations of the prison were shaken. At once all the prison doors flew open, and everybody's chains came loose.
7.
Revelations 6:12
And I saw when it opened the sixth seal, and there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as hair sackcloth, and the whole moon became as blood...
Is GOD so cruel?........
God's unilateral taking of thousands of lives in Turkey is a loud declaration that "The Lord gave and the Lord has taken away" (Job 1:21). The message for all the world is that life is a loan from God and belongs to him. He creates it, and gives it, and takes it according to his own will and owes us nothing. It is a great gift for believers to learn this truth and dedicate our lives to their true owner, rather than defraud him of what is rightfully His.
1 Corinthians 6:19-20 (NKJV) Or do you not know that your body is the temple of the Holy Spirit who is in you, whom you have from God, and you are not your own? 20 For YOU WERE BOUGHT AT A PRICE; THEREFORE GLORIFY GOD IN YOUR BODY AND IN YOUR SPIRIT, WHICH ARE GOD'S.
1 Corinthians 6:19-20 (NKJV) Or do you not know that your body is the temple of the Holy Spirit who is in you, whom you have from God, and you are not your own? 20 For YOU WERE BOUGHT AT A PRICE; THEREFORE GLORIFY GOD IN YOUR BODY AND IN YOUR SPIRIT, WHICH ARE GOD'S.
Earthquakes & The Bible
Is our planet Earth shaking with greater frequency and intensity than ever before in human history? Every time something like this happens the prophecy preachers start shouting, "The end is near." Is there a spiritual significance to this earthquake?
In The Promise, Hal Lindsey states, Jesus "warned that earthquakes would increase in frequency and intensity as this old earth prepared for its final cataclysm" (Page 198). He says that this piece of the prophetic "jigsaw puzzle" is supposed to be taking place in our day. In his book, Good-bye Planet Earth (1976), Seventh Day Adventist author, Robert H. Pierson, has a subheading "A Shaking, Quaking Planet." Under it he states:
With increasing frequency and intensity Mother Earth has been shaking and quaking. Hundreds of thousands of people have lost their lives. Multiplied thousands more will perish in greater earth spasms ahead. Never since the days of Noah has the world been so badly battered. Again God is speaking to us -- He is seeking to tell us that our time is short.
Are we supposed to some how see God's voice in this latest earthquake? Is God telling us our time is short? How short?
The most remarkable and detailed claims in this regard, however, are those made by the Governing Body of Jehovah's Witnesses and their Watch Tower Society. Maintaining that Christ's statement regarding "great earthquakes" (Luke chapter 21:11) has seen its true fulfillment only since 1914, the Watch Tower Society claims that we have experienced an enormous increase in such earthquakes since that year: The frequency of major earthquakes has increased about 20 times what it was on an average during the two thousand years before 1914. (Survival into a New Earth(1984), page 23.)
Before we examine what the Bible has to say on this issue, let me say that from a scientific standpoint, these claims of increased earthquake activity in our day are false. The earth has not been shaking and quaking with greater frequency.
Charles F. Richter, former President of the Seismological Society of America and the originator of the "Richter scale," in an article published in the December 1969 issue of Natural History magazine said: "One notices with some amusement that certain religious groups have picked this rather unfortunate time to insist that the number of earthquakes is increasing. In part they are misled by the increasing number of small earthquakes that are being catalogued and listed by newer, more sensitive stations throughout the world" (page 44).
Dr. Richter's statement was aimed at demonstrating that the claimed increase in the earthquake activity during our century finds no support in the recorded seismological data during the period of instrumentally measured seismicity, which covers the period from 1896, or more particularly from 1903 onward.
Dr. Richter's statement was made back in 1969. Why then, does Hal Lindsey make these claims in his book, The 1980's--Countdown to Armageddon?:
There have been many great earthquakes throughout history, but, according to surprisingly well-kept records, in the past they did not occur very frequently. The 20th century, however, has experienced an unprecedented increase in the frequency of these calamities. In fact, the number of earthquakes per decade has roughly doubled in each of the 10-year periods since 1950 (page 29).
The 1970's experienced the largest increase in the number of quakes known to history. In fact, the dramatic increase in quakes in 1976 led many scientists to say we are entering a period of great seismic disturbances (page 30).
Hal Lindsey is trying to prove his clams that we are in the "last days" by using scientific data. The problem is that what he says is not what the data really says.
More recent statistics published by other seismologists, who have carefully and objectively examined the matter, not only confirm the accuracy of Dr. Richter's statement, but show that it continued to be true into the 1970's.
What do the seismologists themselves say as to the overall picture? Have they found any marked difference between the frequency of earthquakes since 1914 compared with earlier centuries? Seismologists, J. Milne and A. W. Lee, declared, "There is no indication that seismic activity has increased or diminished appreciably throughout historic times." And Professor Markus Both agrees: "For earlier centuries we do not have the same reliable statistics, but there are no indications at all of any increase in the activity in the course of time."
As the ancient records become more and more sparse and incomplete the farther back in time we go, it is only natural that we have more and better information from the latest centuries than from the earlier ones. There is, however, one exception- Japan. The Japanese have kept a running record
of destructive earthquakes in that country (with its frequent seismic activity) reaching back to well before the birth of Christ. According to Milne's catalog, the number of destructive earthquakes in Japan recorded during each century from the ninth to the nineteenth are:
9th century - 40; 10th century - 17; 11th century - 20; 12th century - 18; 13th century - 16; 14th century - 19; 15th century - 36; 16th century - 17; 17th century - 26; 18th century - 31; 19th century - 27.
WHAT DO LEADING SEISMOLOGISTS SAY ABOUT EARTHQUAKES TODAY AND IN THE PAST?
"There is no indication that seismic activity has increased or diminished appreciably throughout historic time." Seismologists J. Milne and A. W. Lee, Earthquakes and Other Earth Movements, seventh edition (London, 1939), p. 155.
"For earlier centuries we do not have the same reliable statistics, but there are no indications at all of any increase in the activity in the course of time." Professor Markus Both (private letter dated June 17, 1983).
"I certainly would agree with both Professors Both and Richter in their assessment that there has been no significant increase in the number of earthquakes during this or any other century." Wilbur A. Rinehart, seismologist at the World Data Center A, Boulder, Colorado (private letter dated August 8, 1985).
An expert on the seismicity of the Mediterranean area, one of the earth's major earthquake regions, says,"Most certainly, there has been no increase in the seismic activity of the Mediterranean during this century. Quite the contrary, in the Eastern Mediterranean the activity of this century has been abnormally low when compared with that of the 10th-12th and 18th centuries." Professor N. N. Ambraseys (private letter dated August 9, 1985).
"I feel strongly that the seismicity has been stationary for thousands of years. . . . Excellent geological evidence for the stationarity has been obtained by Prof. Kerry Sieh of Caltech, for the San Andreas fault." Seismologist Keiiti Aki, professor at the Department of Geological Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles (private letter dated September 5, 1985).
"There are indications that worldwide seismic activity if expressed in terms of earthquakes with magnitude 7 or over-has decreased steadily in the time from the beginning of the 20th century until now." Seweryn J. Duda, Professor of Geophysics, University of Hamburg (private letter dated July 7, 1986).
These quotes are from chapter 3 of the book, SIGN OF THE LAST DAYS - WHEN? by Carl Olof Jonsson and Wolfgang Herbst, Commentary Press, P.O. Box 43532, Atlanta, Georgia 30336. 1987.
Consequently, there is no evidence whatsoever in support of the claim that earthquake activity is markedly different in our century compared with earlier centuries. All information available points to the contrary.
Now, let's look at what the Bible says about earthquakes. First of all, Jesus only uses the word "earthquakes" three times in Scripture. They are all found in the Gospels in parallel accounts.
Matthew 24:7 (NKJV) "For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places.
Mark 13:8 and Luke 21:11 basically say the same thing. From these verses many have understood Jesus to be saying that earthquakes are a sign of the end of the world? That is not what Jesus said. Let's back up to the beginning of Matthew 24 and see if we can understand what Jesus is saying.
Matthew 24:1-3 (NKJV) Then Jesus went out and departed from the temple, and His disciples came up to show Him the buildings of the temple. 2 And Jesus said to them, "Do you not see all these things? Assuredly, I say to you, not one stone shall be left here upon another, that shall not be thrown down." 3 Now as He sat on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to Him privately, saying, "Tell us, when will these things be? And what will be the sign of Your coming, and of the end of the age?"
The disciples here ask Jesus a twofold question. First, they ask, "When will these things be?" All three of the synoptic gospels ask, "when." The "these things" refers to the temple's destruction in verse 2. In verse 1, the disciples point out the temple buildings to Jesus. In verse 2, Jesus says, "All 'these things' shall be destroyed." It should be clear that they are asking, "WHEN will the temple be destroyed? When will our house be left desolate?" After all Jesus had just said about judgment on Jerusalem, and then about not one stone being left upon another, the disciples' response is, "When?" That makes sense, doesn't it?
The second part of their question is," What will be the sign of your coming and the end of the age."The disciples had one thing, and only one thing, on their mind, and that was the destruction of the temple. With the destruction of the temple, they connected the coming of Messiah and the end of the age.
Now, again, the "these things"-- the destruction of the temple, are connected with the end of the age. Some translations render this "end of the world." That is very confusing. The Greek word used here is aeon which means, "age." It is not talking about the end of the physical world; the word aeon means: "age, era, or a period of time." The expression "end of the age" refers to "the end of the Jewish age." The disciples knew that the fall of the temple and the destruction of the city meant the end of the Old Covenant age and the inauguration of a new age.
We could put the disciples' question this way, "When will the temple be destroyed and what will be the sign of your presence in power and glory as Messiah and the end of the Jewish age?" Amazingly, there is almost unanimity among commentators that the disciples associated the fall of Jerusalem with the Lord's parousia and the end of the age.
With these questions in mind, we move to Jesus' answer.
Matthew 24:4-5 (NKJV) And Jesus answered and said to them: "Take heed that no one deceives you. 5 "For many will come in My name, saying, 'I am the Christ,' and will deceive many.
Who is the "them" in verse 4? It is the disciples. Please keep this in mind as we move through this chapter. Jesus is speaking to his disciples. Whatever Jesus' answer means, it must have meaning to them. Any application that we make to ourselves from Scripture can only be made after we understand what it meant to the original audience. Keep in mind the principle of original relevance. Why do I belabor this point? Because most folks today miss it.
James Stuart Russell in his book, The Parousia, says this concerning Matthew 24:4-14:
It is impossible to read this section and fail to perceive its distinct reference to the period between our Lord's crucifixion and the destruction of Jerusalem. Every word is spoken to the disciples, and to them alone. To imagine that the 'ye' and 'you' in this address apply, not to the disciples to whom Christ was speaking, but to some unknown and yet non-existent persons in a far distant age, is so preposterous a supposition as not to deserve serious notice.
So, Jesus tells his disciples that they will see FALSE MESSIAHS. Then in the next verse he tells them that "THEY" will hear of WARS AND RUMORS OF WARS:
Matthew 24:6 (NKJV) "And YOU will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that YOU are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but THE END IS NOT YET.
Wars are NOT a sign of the end, as the end of verse 6 clearly tells us. He will tell them later in this chapter that when they see a war, not hear of one, they are to flee.
Then Jesus tells THEM that they will see NATION FIGHTING NATION, FAMINES, PESTILENCE, and EARTHQUAKES:
Matthew 24:7 (NKJV) "For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places.
Did the disciple experience earthquakes in their life time? Yes, they did. Tacitus mentions earthquakes at Rome. He wrote, "Frequent earthquakes occurred, by which many houses were thrown down," and, "Twelve populous cities of Asia fell in ruins from an earthquake."
In spite of what Jesus said, "The end is not yet," many today take this passage out of context and speak ignorantly about "The signs of the times," trying to show that this or that battle, serious earthquake, or devastating famine is a sign of Christ's imminent return. ALL these things happened in the time prior to AD 70 and the fall of Jerusalem. They are not signs! As we look back over history, when has there been a time when there were not wars, famines, pestilence and earthquakes? These things are not signs. Jesus said to his disciples that these things are the "beginning of sorrows."
Matthew 24:8 (NKJV) "All these are the beginning of sorrows.
Earthquakes were not signs to the disciples and they are not signs today. Earthquakes are earthquakes, nothing more.
Matthew 24:9 (NKJV) "Then they will deliver YOU up to tribulation and kill YOU, and YOU will be hated by all nations for My name's sake.
Who will be delivered up and killed? THE DISCIPLES! Jesus said the disciples would be afflicted, beaten, imprisoned; they would be hated for his name's sake and some would be killed; they would be brought before councils, rulers, and kings, for a testimony; they would be given a mouth of wisdom which their adversaries could not dispute. The disciples experienced all of this before the fall of Jerusalem in AD 70, just as the Lord said they would. It was unmistakably fulfilled in every detail!
The disciples asked Jesus for a sign of the end and the first sign he gives them is in verse 14:
Matthew 24:14 (NKJV) "And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in all the world as a witness to all the nations, and THEN THE END WILL COME.
Remember the disciples' question? "What shall be the sign of your coming, and of the end of the age?" What end is he talking about here? Unless we take this verse clear out of its setting, "the end" in view here is the end or destruction which was to come upon Jerusalem and the temple ending the Jewish age. Jerusalem would be destroyed, but "first" the gospel would be preached unto all nations.
Well, if all this happened in their day, and all was fulfilled before AD 70, was the gospel preached to all the world before Jerusalem fell? YES! Paul declares that the gospel was preached to every creature under heaven:
Colossians 1:5-6 (NKJV) because of the hope which is laid up for you in heaven, of which you heard before in the word of the truth of the gospel, 6 which has come to you, as it has also in all the world, and is bringing forth fruit, as it is also among you since the day you heard and knew the grace of God in truth;
Colossians 1:23 (NKJV) if indeed you continue in the faith, grounded and steadfast, and are not moved away from the hope of the gospel which you heard, which was preached to every creature under heaven, of which I, Paul, became a minister.
In Matthew 24:14, the Greek word for preached is kerusso; it is in the future tense. But in Colossians 1:23, the same word kerusso is in the aorist tense (past). Jesus said that it is to be preached, and Paul says in AD 62, that it has been preached to every creature.
Listen, people, we are not living in the "Last Days." The last days ended in AD 70, they were the last days of Israel.
Hebrews 1:1-2 (NKJV) God, who at various times and in various ways spoke in time past to the fathers by the prophets, 2 has IN THESE LAST DAYS spoken to us by His Son, whom He has appointed heir of all things, through whom also He made the worlds;
Jesus was speaking in the last days. Last days of what? The last days of the Old Covenant age.
Hebrews 9:26 (NKJV) He then would have had to suffer often since the foundation of the world; but now, once at the END OF THE AGES, He has appeared to put away sin by the sacrifice of Himself.
When was it that Jesus appeared? He was born not at the beginning, but at the end of the ages. Jesus was manifest at the end of the Jewish age. Peter says the same thing.
1 Peter 1:20 (NKJV) He indeed was foreordained before the foundation of the world, but was manifest IN THESE LAST TIMES FOR YOU
Jesus came during the last days of the age that was the Old Covenant age, the Jewish age. That age came to an end with the destruction of the temple in AD 70. All the things prophesied by Jesus in Matthew 24 occurred at the end of that age. So, earthquakes are not a sign to us.
Why this great earthquake in Turkey? What does the Bible tell us about earthquakes? Well, we know that no earthquakes in the Bible are attributed to Satan. Many are attributed to God. This is because God is Lord of heaven and earth.
Luke 8:25 (NKJV) But He said to them, "Where is your faith?" And they were afraid, and marveled, saying to one another, "Who can this be? FOR HE COMMANDS EVEN THE WINDS AND WATER, AND THEY OBEY HIM!"
Psalms 147:15-18 (NKJV) HE SENDS OUT HIS COMMAND TO THE EARTH; His word runs very swiftly. 16 He gives snow like wool; He scatters the frost like ashes; 17 He casts out His hail like morsels; Who can stand before His cold? 18 He sends out His word and melts them; HE CAUSES HIS WIND TO BLOW, AND THE WATERS FLOW.
Psalms 104:32 (NKJV) HE LOOKS ON THE EARTH, AND IT TREMBLES; He touches the hills, and they smoke.
Job 9:6 (NKJV) He shakes the earth out of its place, And its pillars tremble;
Earthquakes are ultimately from God. Nature does not have a will of its own. We know that God does nothing without an infinitely wise and good purpose.
Isaiah 31:2 (NKJV) YET HE ALSO IS WISE AND WILL BRING DISASTER, And will not call back His words, But will arise against the house of evildoers, And against the help of those who work iniquity.
Psalms 100:5 (NKJV) FOR THE LORD IS GOOD; His mercy is everlasting, And His truth endures to all generations.
Therefore, God had good and all-wise purposes for the heart-rending tragedy in Turkey that took thousands of lives on August 16, 1999. Indeed, he had hundreds of thousands of purposes, most of which will remain hidden to us. When things like this earthquake take place, we must keep in mind:
Romans 11:33 (NKJV) Oh, the depth of the riches both of the wisdom and knowledge of God! How unsearchable are His judgments and His ways past finding out!
We cannot begin to understand His decisions, His decrees; they are way past being able to be searched out. The words "past finding out" are a Greek hunting metaphor of hunters who would track animals and lose the path. If you try to follow what God is doing, you're going to lose the path. Because God's ways are unsearchable, we are shut up to faith.
Romans 11:34-35 (NKJV) "For who has known the mind of the LORD? Or who has become His counselor?" 35 "Or who has first given to Him And it shall be repaid to him?"
In verse 34 and 35, he asks three rhetorical questions:
1. "Who has known the mind of the Lord?" Do you think that you can understand God's thought process?
Isaiah 55:8 (NKJV) "For My thoughts are not your thoughts, Nor are your ways My ways," says the LORD.
2. "Who has been His counselor?" Who does God go to for advice? Should He have come to you? We sometimes act as if He should have. What arrogance! If you had the power to change some of your circumstances in life, would you? Why? Has God messed up, made a mistake? Do we know better than He does? His wisdom is infinite, we must learn to trust Him in everything.
3. "Who has first given to Him And it shall be repaid to him?" Who had God in debt to him? Who does God owe anything to? No one ever gave to God.
Romans 11:36 (NKJV) For of Him and through Him and to Him are all things, to whom be glory forever. Amen.
The three prepositions used here, "of," "through" and "to," indicate that God is the source; the constantly working cause and the end of all things. God is the source of everything, God controls everything, and He made and controls everything for his own glory.
Revelation 4:11 (NKJV) "You are worthy, O Lord, To receive glory and honor and power; For You created all things, And by Your will they exist and were created."
The purpose, the final purpose, the all inclusive purpose of everything is to display God's glory.
When we see a disaster such as the earthquake in Turkey, we shouldn't ask, "How could God do that?" We should see those people as an example of what we all deserve. They weren't worse sinners--they were an illustration of justice.
We all deserve the wrath of God because of our sin. Have you ever sinned? Yes, you have. Have you experienced God's wrath? No, and you never will if you have put your trust in the saving work of the Lord Jesus Christ. God's redemption of man is pure mercy! Praise God for His mercy because you don't deserve it. We deserve wrath, we deserve hell. Anything short of that should cause us to be grateful. Whenever we see God act in justice, or when things aren't going according to our plans, we shouldn't question God's fairness. We should realize what we really deserve, and be grateful that God is merciful.
God's unilateral taking of thousands of lives in Turkey is a loud declaration that "The Lord gave and the Lord has taken away" (Job 1:21). The message for all the world is that life is a loan from God and belongs to him. He creates it, and gives it, and takes it according to his own will and owes us nothing. It is a great gift for believers to learn this truth and dedicate our lives to their true owner, rather than defraud him of what is rightfully His.
1 Corinthians 6:19-20 (NKJV) Or do you not know that your body is the temple of the Holy Spirit who is in you, whom you have from God, and you are not your own? 20 For YOU WERE BOUGHT AT A PRICE; THEREFORE GLORIFY GOD IN YOUR BODY AND IN YOUR SPIRIT, WHICH ARE GOD'S.
This message preached by David B. Curtis on August 22, 1999
In The Promise, Hal Lindsey states, Jesus "warned that earthquakes would increase in frequency and intensity as this old earth prepared for its final cataclysm" (Page 198). He says that this piece of the prophetic "jigsaw puzzle" is supposed to be taking place in our day. In his book, Good-bye Planet Earth (1976), Seventh Day Adventist author, Robert H. Pierson, has a subheading "A Shaking, Quaking Planet." Under it he states:
With increasing frequency and intensity Mother Earth has been shaking and quaking. Hundreds of thousands of people have lost their lives. Multiplied thousands more will perish in greater earth spasms ahead. Never since the days of Noah has the world been so badly battered. Again God is speaking to us -- He is seeking to tell us that our time is short.
Are we supposed to some how see God's voice in this latest earthquake? Is God telling us our time is short? How short?
The most remarkable and detailed claims in this regard, however, are those made by the Governing Body of Jehovah's Witnesses and their Watch Tower Society. Maintaining that Christ's statement regarding "great earthquakes" (Luke chapter 21:11) has seen its true fulfillment only since 1914, the Watch Tower Society claims that we have experienced an enormous increase in such earthquakes since that year: The frequency of major earthquakes has increased about 20 times what it was on an average during the two thousand years before 1914. (Survival into a New Earth(1984), page 23.)
Before we examine what the Bible has to say on this issue, let me say that from a scientific standpoint, these claims of increased earthquake activity in our day are false. The earth has not been shaking and quaking with greater frequency.
Charles F. Richter, former President of the Seismological Society of America and the originator of the "Richter scale," in an article published in the December 1969 issue of Natural History magazine said: "One notices with some amusement that certain religious groups have picked this rather unfortunate time to insist that the number of earthquakes is increasing. In part they are misled by the increasing number of small earthquakes that are being catalogued and listed by newer, more sensitive stations throughout the world" (page 44).
Dr. Richter's statement was aimed at demonstrating that the claimed increase in the earthquake activity during our century finds no support in the recorded seismological data during the period of instrumentally measured seismicity, which covers the period from 1896, or more particularly from 1903 onward.
Dr. Richter's statement was made back in 1969. Why then, does Hal Lindsey make these claims in his book, The 1980's--Countdown to Armageddon?:
There have been many great earthquakes throughout history, but, according to surprisingly well-kept records, in the past they did not occur very frequently. The 20th century, however, has experienced an unprecedented increase in the frequency of these calamities. In fact, the number of earthquakes per decade has roughly doubled in each of the 10-year periods since 1950 (page 29).
The 1970's experienced the largest increase in the number of quakes known to history. In fact, the dramatic increase in quakes in 1976 led many scientists to say we are entering a period of great seismic disturbances (page 30).
Hal Lindsey is trying to prove his clams that we are in the "last days" by using scientific data. The problem is that what he says is not what the data really says.
More recent statistics published by other seismologists, who have carefully and objectively examined the matter, not only confirm the accuracy of Dr. Richter's statement, but show that it continued to be true into the 1970's.
What do the seismologists themselves say as to the overall picture? Have they found any marked difference between the frequency of earthquakes since 1914 compared with earlier centuries? Seismologists, J. Milne and A. W. Lee, declared, "There is no indication that seismic activity has increased or diminished appreciably throughout historic times." And Professor Markus Both agrees: "For earlier centuries we do not have the same reliable statistics, but there are no indications at all of any increase in the activity in the course of time."
As the ancient records become more and more sparse and incomplete the farther back in time we go, it is only natural that we have more and better information from the latest centuries than from the earlier ones. There is, however, one exception- Japan. The Japanese have kept a running record
of destructive earthquakes in that country (with its frequent seismic activity) reaching back to well before the birth of Christ. According to Milne's catalog, the number of destructive earthquakes in Japan recorded during each century from the ninth to the nineteenth are:
9th century - 40; 10th century - 17; 11th century - 20; 12th century - 18; 13th century - 16; 14th century - 19; 15th century - 36; 16th century - 17; 17th century - 26; 18th century - 31; 19th century - 27.
WHAT DO LEADING SEISMOLOGISTS SAY ABOUT EARTHQUAKES TODAY AND IN THE PAST?
"There is no indication that seismic activity has increased or diminished appreciably throughout historic time." Seismologists J. Milne and A. W. Lee, Earthquakes and Other Earth Movements, seventh edition (London, 1939), p. 155.
"For earlier centuries we do not have the same reliable statistics, but there are no indications at all of any increase in the activity in the course of time." Professor Markus Both (private letter dated June 17, 1983).
"I certainly would agree with both Professors Both and Richter in their assessment that there has been no significant increase in the number of earthquakes during this or any other century." Wilbur A. Rinehart, seismologist at the World Data Center A, Boulder, Colorado (private letter dated August 8, 1985).
An expert on the seismicity of the Mediterranean area, one of the earth's major earthquake regions, says,"Most certainly, there has been no increase in the seismic activity of the Mediterranean during this century. Quite the contrary, in the Eastern Mediterranean the activity of this century has been abnormally low when compared with that of the 10th-12th and 18th centuries." Professor N. N. Ambraseys (private letter dated August 9, 1985).
"I feel strongly that the seismicity has been stationary for thousands of years. . . . Excellent geological evidence for the stationarity has been obtained by Prof. Kerry Sieh of Caltech, for the San Andreas fault." Seismologist Keiiti Aki, professor at the Department of Geological Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles (private letter dated September 5, 1985).
"There are indications that worldwide seismic activity if expressed in terms of earthquakes with magnitude 7 or over-has decreased steadily in the time from the beginning of the 20th century until now." Seweryn J. Duda, Professor of Geophysics, University of Hamburg (private letter dated July 7, 1986).
These quotes are from chapter 3 of the book, SIGN OF THE LAST DAYS - WHEN? by Carl Olof Jonsson and Wolfgang Herbst, Commentary Press, P.O. Box 43532, Atlanta, Georgia 30336. 1987.
Consequently, there is no evidence whatsoever in support of the claim that earthquake activity is markedly different in our century compared with earlier centuries. All information available points to the contrary.
Now, let's look at what the Bible says about earthquakes. First of all, Jesus only uses the word "earthquakes" three times in Scripture. They are all found in the Gospels in parallel accounts.
Matthew 24:7 (NKJV) "For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places.
Mark 13:8 and Luke 21:11 basically say the same thing. From these verses many have understood Jesus to be saying that earthquakes are a sign of the end of the world? That is not what Jesus said. Let's back up to the beginning of Matthew 24 and see if we can understand what Jesus is saying.
Matthew 24:1-3 (NKJV) Then Jesus went out and departed from the temple, and His disciples came up to show Him the buildings of the temple. 2 And Jesus said to them, "Do you not see all these things? Assuredly, I say to you, not one stone shall be left here upon another, that shall not be thrown down." 3 Now as He sat on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to Him privately, saying, "Tell us, when will these things be? And what will be the sign of Your coming, and of the end of the age?"
The disciples here ask Jesus a twofold question. First, they ask, "When will these things be?" All three of the synoptic gospels ask, "when." The "these things" refers to the temple's destruction in verse 2. In verse 1, the disciples point out the temple buildings to Jesus. In verse 2, Jesus says, "All 'these things' shall be destroyed." It should be clear that they are asking, "WHEN will the temple be destroyed? When will our house be left desolate?" After all Jesus had just said about judgment on Jerusalem, and then about not one stone being left upon another, the disciples' response is, "When?" That makes sense, doesn't it?
The second part of their question is," What will be the sign of your coming and the end of the age."The disciples had one thing, and only one thing, on their mind, and that was the destruction of the temple. With the destruction of the temple, they connected the coming of Messiah and the end of the age.
Now, again, the "these things"-- the destruction of the temple, are connected with the end of the age. Some translations render this "end of the world." That is very confusing. The Greek word used here is aeon which means, "age." It is not talking about the end of the physical world; the word aeon means: "age, era, or a period of time." The expression "end of the age" refers to "the end of the Jewish age." The disciples knew that the fall of the temple and the destruction of the city meant the end of the Old Covenant age and the inauguration of a new age.
We could put the disciples' question this way, "When will the temple be destroyed and what will be the sign of your presence in power and glory as Messiah and the end of the Jewish age?" Amazingly, there is almost unanimity among commentators that the disciples associated the fall of Jerusalem with the Lord's parousia and the end of the age.
With these questions in mind, we move to Jesus' answer.
Matthew 24:4-5 (NKJV) And Jesus answered and said to them: "Take heed that no one deceives you. 5 "For many will come in My name, saying, 'I am the Christ,' and will deceive many.
Who is the "them" in verse 4? It is the disciples. Please keep this in mind as we move through this chapter. Jesus is speaking to his disciples. Whatever Jesus' answer means, it must have meaning to them. Any application that we make to ourselves from Scripture can only be made after we understand what it meant to the original audience. Keep in mind the principle of original relevance. Why do I belabor this point? Because most folks today miss it.
James Stuart Russell in his book, The Parousia, says this concerning Matthew 24:4-14:
It is impossible to read this section and fail to perceive its distinct reference to the period between our Lord's crucifixion and the destruction of Jerusalem. Every word is spoken to the disciples, and to them alone. To imagine that the 'ye' and 'you' in this address apply, not to the disciples to whom Christ was speaking, but to some unknown and yet non-existent persons in a far distant age, is so preposterous a supposition as not to deserve serious notice.
So, Jesus tells his disciples that they will see FALSE MESSIAHS. Then in the next verse he tells them that "THEY" will hear of WARS AND RUMORS OF WARS:
Matthew 24:6 (NKJV) "And YOU will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that YOU are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but THE END IS NOT YET.
Wars are NOT a sign of the end, as the end of verse 6 clearly tells us. He will tell them later in this chapter that when they see a war, not hear of one, they are to flee.
Then Jesus tells THEM that they will see NATION FIGHTING NATION, FAMINES, PESTILENCE, and EARTHQUAKES:
Matthew 24:7 (NKJV) "For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places.
Did the disciple experience earthquakes in their life time? Yes, they did. Tacitus mentions earthquakes at Rome. He wrote, "Frequent earthquakes occurred, by which many houses were thrown down," and, "Twelve populous cities of Asia fell in ruins from an earthquake."
In spite of what Jesus said, "The end is not yet," many today take this passage out of context and speak ignorantly about "The signs of the times," trying to show that this or that battle, serious earthquake, or devastating famine is a sign of Christ's imminent return. ALL these things happened in the time prior to AD 70 and the fall of Jerusalem. They are not signs! As we look back over history, when has there been a time when there were not wars, famines, pestilence and earthquakes? These things are not signs. Jesus said to his disciples that these things are the "beginning of sorrows."
Matthew 24:8 (NKJV) "All these are the beginning of sorrows.
Earthquakes were not signs to the disciples and they are not signs today. Earthquakes are earthquakes, nothing more.
Matthew 24:9 (NKJV) "Then they will deliver YOU up to tribulation and kill YOU, and YOU will be hated by all nations for My name's sake.
Who will be delivered up and killed? THE DISCIPLES! Jesus said the disciples would be afflicted, beaten, imprisoned; they would be hated for his name's sake and some would be killed; they would be brought before councils, rulers, and kings, for a testimony; they would be given a mouth of wisdom which their adversaries could not dispute. The disciples experienced all of this before the fall of Jerusalem in AD 70, just as the Lord said they would. It was unmistakably fulfilled in every detail!
The disciples asked Jesus for a sign of the end and the first sign he gives them is in verse 14:
Matthew 24:14 (NKJV) "And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in all the world as a witness to all the nations, and THEN THE END WILL COME.
Remember the disciples' question? "What shall be the sign of your coming, and of the end of the age?" What end is he talking about here? Unless we take this verse clear out of its setting, "the end" in view here is the end or destruction which was to come upon Jerusalem and the temple ending the Jewish age. Jerusalem would be destroyed, but "first" the gospel would be preached unto all nations.
Well, if all this happened in their day, and all was fulfilled before AD 70, was the gospel preached to all the world before Jerusalem fell? YES! Paul declares that the gospel was preached to every creature under heaven:
Colossians 1:5-6 (NKJV) because of the hope which is laid up for you in heaven, of which you heard before in the word of the truth of the gospel, 6 which has come to you, as it has also in all the world, and is bringing forth fruit, as it is also among you since the day you heard and knew the grace of God in truth;
Colossians 1:23 (NKJV) if indeed you continue in the faith, grounded and steadfast, and are not moved away from the hope of the gospel which you heard, which was preached to every creature under heaven, of which I, Paul, became a minister.
In Matthew 24:14, the Greek word for preached is kerusso; it is in the future tense. But in Colossians 1:23, the same word kerusso is in the aorist tense (past). Jesus said that it is to be preached, and Paul says in AD 62, that it has been preached to every creature.
Listen, people, we are not living in the "Last Days." The last days ended in AD 70, they were the last days of Israel.
Hebrews 1:1-2 (NKJV) God, who at various times and in various ways spoke in time past to the fathers by the prophets, 2 has IN THESE LAST DAYS spoken to us by His Son, whom He has appointed heir of all things, through whom also He made the worlds;
Jesus was speaking in the last days. Last days of what? The last days of the Old Covenant age.
Hebrews 9:26 (NKJV) He then would have had to suffer often since the foundation of the world; but now, once at the END OF THE AGES, He has appeared to put away sin by the sacrifice of Himself.
When was it that Jesus appeared? He was born not at the beginning, but at the end of the ages. Jesus was manifest at the end of the Jewish age. Peter says the same thing.
1 Peter 1:20 (NKJV) He indeed was foreordained before the foundation of the world, but was manifest IN THESE LAST TIMES FOR YOU
Jesus came during the last days of the age that was the Old Covenant age, the Jewish age. That age came to an end with the destruction of the temple in AD 70. All the things prophesied by Jesus in Matthew 24 occurred at the end of that age. So, earthquakes are not a sign to us.
Why this great earthquake in Turkey? What does the Bible tell us about earthquakes? Well, we know that no earthquakes in the Bible are attributed to Satan. Many are attributed to God. This is because God is Lord of heaven and earth.
Luke 8:25 (NKJV) But He said to them, "Where is your faith?" And they were afraid, and marveled, saying to one another, "Who can this be? FOR HE COMMANDS EVEN THE WINDS AND WATER, AND THEY OBEY HIM!"
Psalms 147:15-18 (NKJV) HE SENDS OUT HIS COMMAND TO THE EARTH; His word runs very swiftly. 16 He gives snow like wool; He scatters the frost like ashes; 17 He casts out His hail like morsels; Who can stand before His cold? 18 He sends out His word and melts them; HE CAUSES HIS WIND TO BLOW, AND THE WATERS FLOW.
Psalms 104:32 (NKJV) HE LOOKS ON THE EARTH, AND IT TREMBLES; He touches the hills, and they smoke.
Job 9:6 (NKJV) He shakes the earth out of its place, And its pillars tremble;
Earthquakes are ultimately from God. Nature does not have a will of its own. We know that God does nothing without an infinitely wise and good purpose.
Isaiah 31:2 (NKJV) YET HE ALSO IS WISE AND WILL BRING DISASTER, And will not call back His words, But will arise against the house of evildoers, And against the help of those who work iniquity.
Psalms 100:5 (NKJV) FOR THE LORD IS GOOD; His mercy is everlasting, And His truth endures to all generations.
Therefore, God had good and all-wise purposes for the heart-rending tragedy in Turkey that took thousands of lives on August 16, 1999. Indeed, he had hundreds of thousands of purposes, most of which will remain hidden to us. When things like this earthquake take place, we must keep in mind:
Romans 11:33 (NKJV) Oh, the depth of the riches both of the wisdom and knowledge of God! How unsearchable are His judgments and His ways past finding out!
We cannot begin to understand His decisions, His decrees; they are way past being able to be searched out. The words "past finding out" are a Greek hunting metaphor of hunters who would track animals and lose the path. If you try to follow what God is doing, you're going to lose the path. Because God's ways are unsearchable, we are shut up to faith.
Romans 11:34-35 (NKJV) "For who has known the mind of the LORD? Or who has become His counselor?" 35 "Or who has first given to Him And it shall be repaid to him?"
In verse 34 and 35, he asks three rhetorical questions:
1. "Who has known the mind of the Lord?" Do you think that you can understand God's thought process?
Isaiah 55:8 (NKJV) "For My thoughts are not your thoughts, Nor are your ways My ways," says the LORD.
2. "Who has been His counselor?" Who does God go to for advice? Should He have come to you? We sometimes act as if He should have. What arrogance! If you had the power to change some of your circumstances in life, would you? Why? Has God messed up, made a mistake? Do we know better than He does? His wisdom is infinite, we must learn to trust Him in everything.
3. "Who has first given to Him And it shall be repaid to him?" Who had God in debt to him? Who does God owe anything to? No one ever gave to God.
Romans 11:36 (NKJV) For of Him and through Him and to Him are all things, to whom be glory forever. Amen.
The three prepositions used here, "of," "through" and "to," indicate that God is the source; the constantly working cause and the end of all things. God is the source of everything, God controls everything, and He made and controls everything for his own glory.
Revelation 4:11 (NKJV) "You are worthy, O Lord, To receive glory and honor and power; For You created all things, And by Your will they exist and were created."
The purpose, the final purpose, the all inclusive purpose of everything is to display God's glory.
When we see a disaster such as the earthquake in Turkey, we shouldn't ask, "How could God do that?" We should see those people as an example of what we all deserve. They weren't worse sinners--they were an illustration of justice.
We all deserve the wrath of God because of our sin. Have you ever sinned? Yes, you have. Have you experienced God's wrath? No, and you never will if you have put your trust in the saving work of the Lord Jesus Christ. God's redemption of man is pure mercy! Praise God for His mercy because you don't deserve it. We deserve wrath, we deserve hell. Anything short of that should cause us to be grateful. Whenever we see God act in justice, or when things aren't going according to our plans, we shouldn't question God's fairness. We should realize what we really deserve, and be grateful that God is merciful.
God's unilateral taking of thousands of lives in Turkey is a loud declaration that "The Lord gave and the Lord has taken away" (Job 1:21). The message for all the world is that life is a loan from God and belongs to him. He creates it, and gives it, and takes it according to his own will and owes us nothing. It is a great gift for believers to learn this truth and dedicate our lives to their true owner, rather than defraud him of what is rightfully His.
1 Corinthians 6:19-20 (NKJV) Or do you not know that your body is the temple of the Holy Spirit who is in you, whom you have from God, and you are not your own? 20 For YOU WERE BOUGHT AT A PRICE; THEREFORE GLORIFY GOD IN YOUR BODY AND IN YOUR SPIRIT, WHICH ARE GOD'S.
This message preached by David B. Curtis on August 22, 1999
8.8-magnitude earthquake hits central Chile; tsunami threatens Pacific
SANTIAGO, Chile (AP) - A devastating magnitude-8.8 earthquake struck Chile early Saturday, shattering buildings and bridges, killing at least 78 people and setting off a tsunami that threatened every nation around the Pacific Ocean - roughly a quarter of the globe.
Chilean TV showed devastating images of the most powerful quake to hit the country in a half-century: In the second city of Concepcion trucks plunged into the fractured earth, homes fell, bridges collapsed and buildings were engulfed in flames. Injured people lay in the streets or on stretchers.
Many roads were destroyed and electricity and water were cut to many areas.
There was still no word of death or damage from many outlying areas that were cut off by the quake that struck at 3:34 a.m. (1:34 a.m. EST, 0634 GMT) 200 miles (325 kilometres) southwest of Santiago.
Experts warned that a tsunami could strike anywhere in the Pacific, and Hawaii could face its largest waves since 1964 starting at 11:19 a.m. (4:19 p.m. EST, 2119 GMT), according to Charles McCreery, director of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre.
Tsunami waves were likely to hit Asian, Australian and New Zealand shores within 24 hours of the earthquake. The U.S. West Coast and Alaska, too, were threatened.
A huge wave swept into a populated area in the Robinson Crusoe Islands, 410 miles (660 kilometres) off the Chilean coast, President Michele Bachelet said, but there were no immediate reports of major damage there.
Bachelet said the death toll was at 78 and rising, but officials had no information on the number of people injured. She declared a "state of catastrophe" in central Chile. "We have had a huge earthquake, with some aftershocks," Bachelet said from an emergency response centre. She urged Chileans not to panic.
"Despite this, the system is functioning. People should remain calm. We're doing everything we can with all the forces we have. Any information we will share immediately," she said.
Powerful aftershocks rattled Chile's coast - 21 of them magnitude 5 or greater and one reaching magnitude 6.9 - the U.S. Geological Survey reported.
Bachelet urged people to avoid traveling, since traffic lights are down, to avoid causing more fatalities.
The airport for Chile's capital of Santiago airport was shut down and will remain closed for at least the next 24 hours, airport director Eduardo del Canto said.
The passenger terminal suffered major damage, he told Chilean television in a telephone interview. TV images show smashed windows, partially collapsed ceilings and pedestrian walkways destroyed.
In Concepcion, nurses and residents pushed some of the injured through the streets on stretchers. Others walked around in a daze wrapped in blankets, some carrying infants in their arms.
The epicenter was just 70 miles (115 kilometres) from Concepcion, where more than 200,000 people live along the Bio Bio river, and 60 miles (95 kilometres) from the ski town of Chillan, a gateway to Andean ski resorts that was destroyed in a 1939 earthquake.
The quake also shook buildings in Argentina's capital of Buenos Aires, 900 miles (1,400 kilometres) away on the Atlantic side of South America.
Marco Vidal - a program director for Grand Circle Travel who was traveling with a group of 34 Americans - was on the 19th floor of the Crown Plaza Santiago hotel when the quake struck.
"All the things start to fall. The lamps, everything, was going on the floor. And it was moving like from south to north, oscillated. I felt terrified," he said. Cynthia Iocono, from Linwood, Pennsylvania, said she first thought the quake was a train.
"But then I thought, oh, there's no train here. And then the lamps flew off the dresser and my TV flew off onto the floor and crashed."
"It was scary, but there really wasn't any panic. Everybody kind of stayed orderly and looked after one another," Iocono said.
In Santiago, modern buildings are built to withstand earthquakes, but many older ones were heavily damaged, including the Nuestra Senora de la Providencia church, whose bell tower collapsed. An apartment building's two-level parking lot also flattened onto the ground floor, smashing about 50 cars whose alarms and horns rang incessantly. A bridge just outside the capital also collapsed, and at least one car flipped upside down.
The quake struck after concert-goers had left South America's leading music festival in the coastal city of Vina del Mar, but it caught partiers leaving a disco. "It was very bad, people were screaming, some people were running, others appeared paralyzed. I was one of them," , Julio Alvarez told Radio Cooperativa in Santiago.
Bachelet said she was declaring a "state of catastrophe" in three central regions of the country.
She said Chile has not asked for assistance from other countries.
Several hospitals were evacuated due to earthquake damage, she said.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center called for "urgent action to protect lives and property" in Hawaii, which is among 53 nations and territories subject to tsunami warnings.
"Sea level readings indicate a tsunami was generated. It may have been destructive along coasts near the earthquake epicenter and could also be a threat to more distant coasts," the warning center said. It did not expect a tsunami along the west of the U.S. or Canada but was continuing to monitor the situation.
The largest earthquake ever recorded struck the same area of Chile on May 22, 1960. The magnitude-9.5 quake killed 1,655 people and left 2 million homeless. The tsunami that it caused killed people in Hawaii, Japan and the Philippines and caused damage to the west coast of the United States.
It was the strongest quake to hit Chile since a magnitude-9.5 temblor rocked southern Chile in 1960. Together with an ensuing tsunami, it killed at least 1,716 people.
Chilean TV showed devastating images of the most powerful quake to hit the country in a half-century: In the second city of Concepcion trucks plunged into the fractured earth, homes fell, bridges collapsed and buildings were engulfed in flames. Injured people lay in the streets or on stretchers.
Many roads were destroyed and electricity and water were cut to many areas.
There was still no word of death or damage from many outlying areas that were cut off by the quake that struck at 3:34 a.m. (1:34 a.m. EST, 0634 GMT) 200 miles (325 kilometres) southwest of Santiago.
Experts warned that a tsunami could strike anywhere in the Pacific, and Hawaii could face its largest waves since 1964 starting at 11:19 a.m. (4:19 p.m. EST, 2119 GMT), according to Charles McCreery, director of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre.
Tsunami waves were likely to hit Asian, Australian and New Zealand shores within 24 hours of the earthquake. The U.S. West Coast and Alaska, too, were threatened.
A huge wave swept into a populated area in the Robinson Crusoe Islands, 410 miles (660 kilometres) off the Chilean coast, President Michele Bachelet said, but there were no immediate reports of major damage there.
Bachelet said the death toll was at 78 and rising, but officials had no information on the number of people injured. She declared a "state of catastrophe" in central Chile. "We have had a huge earthquake, with some aftershocks," Bachelet said from an emergency response centre. She urged Chileans not to panic.
"Despite this, the system is functioning. People should remain calm. We're doing everything we can with all the forces we have. Any information we will share immediately," she said.
Powerful aftershocks rattled Chile's coast - 21 of them magnitude 5 or greater and one reaching magnitude 6.9 - the U.S. Geological Survey reported.
Bachelet urged people to avoid traveling, since traffic lights are down, to avoid causing more fatalities.
The airport for Chile's capital of Santiago airport was shut down and will remain closed for at least the next 24 hours, airport director Eduardo del Canto said.
The passenger terminal suffered major damage, he told Chilean television in a telephone interview. TV images show smashed windows, partially collapsed ceilings and pedestrian walkways destroyed.
In Concepcion, nurses and residents pushed some of the injured through the streets on stretchers. Others walked around in a daze wrapped in blankets, some carrying infants in their arms.
The epicenter was just 70 miles (115 kilometres) from Concepcion, where more than 200,000 people live along the Bio Bio river, and 60 miles (95 kilometres) from the ski town of Chillan, a gateway to Andean ski resorts that was destroyed in a 1939 earthquake.
The quake also shook buildings in Argentina's capital of Buenos Aires, 900 miles (1,400 kilometres) away on the Atlantic side of South America.
Marco Vidal - a program director for Grand Circle Travel who was traveling with a group of 34 Americans - was on the 19th floor of the Crown Plaza Santiago hotel when the quake struck.
"All the things start to fall. The lamps, everything, was going on the floor. And it was moving like from south to north, oscillated. I felt terrified," he said. Cynthia Iocono, from Linwood, Pennsylvania, said she first thought the quake was a train.
"But then I thought, oh, there's no train here. And then the lamps flew off the dresser and my TV flew off onto the floor and crashed."
"It was scary, but there really wasn't any panic. Everybody kind of stayed orderly and looked after one another," Iocono said.
In Santiago, modern buildings are built to withstand earthquakes, but many older ones were heavily damaged, including the Nuestra Senora de la Providencia church, whose bell tower collapsed. An apartment building's two-level parking lot also flattened onto the ground floor, smashing about 50 cars whose alarms and horns rang incessantly. A bridge just outside the capital also collapsed, and at least one car flipped upside down.
The quake struck after concert-goers had left South America's leading music festival in the coastal city of Vina del Mar, but it caught partiers leaving a disco. "It was very bad, people were screaming, some people were running, others appeared paralyzed. I was one of them," , Julio Alvarez told Radio Cooperativa in Santiago.
Bachelet said she was declaring a "state of catastrophe" in three central regions of the country.
She said Chile has not asked for assistance from other countries.
Several hospitals were evacuated due to earthquake damage, she said.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center called for "urgent action to protect lives and property" in Hawaii, which is among 53 nations and territories subject to tsunami warnings.
"Sea level readings indicate a tsunami was generated. It may have been destructive along coasts near the earthquake epicenter and could also be a threat to more distant coasts," the warning center said. It did not expect a tsunami along the west of the U.S. or Canada but was continuing to monitor the situation.
The largest earthquake ever recorded struck the same area of Chile on May 22, 1960. The magnitude-9.5 quake killed 1,655 people and left 2 million homeless. The tsunami that it caused killed people in Hawaii, Japan and the Philippines and caused damage to the west coast of the United States.
It was the strongest quake to hit Chile since a magnitude-9.5 temblor rocked southern Chile in 1960. Together with an ensuing tsunami, it killed at least 1,716 people.
How Berkshire diversify and its ROI.........
Berkshire owns roughly 80 subsidiaries, including clothing, furniture, jewelry and corporate jet firms, but its insurance and utility businesses typically account for more than half of the company's revenue. It also has major investments in such companies as Coca-Cola Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
Berkshire's investment income was a bright spot. It received a boost from loans made to several companies in the depths of the financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. Companies such as Goldman Sachs, GE, and Harley-Davidson are paying at least 10 percent interest on nearly $9 billion Berkshire loaned them.
Berkshire's investment income was a bright spot. It received a boost from loans made to several companies in the depths of the financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. Companies such as Goldman Sachs, GE, and Harley-Davidson are paying at least 10 percent interest on nearly $9 billion Berkshire loaned them.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
FA......AIG loses US$8.87bil in 4Q
CHARLOTTE, North Carolina: AIG said Friday it lost US$8.87 billion in the fourth quarter as its general insurance business remained weak and the company ran up expenses from paying back government loans.
The troubled insurer also said in an annual regulatory filing that it may need additional support from the government.
However, AIG has included such warnings in past filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The fourth-quarter results were an improvement from the $61.7 billion AIG lost in the year ago period, but they were worse than analysts expected.
They also followed two straight profitable quarters.
The company reported a 2.2 percent drop in new premiums in its Chartis general insurance business, compared with a year earlier.
AIG attributed the slide in part to the weak economy.
It also had lower sales of life insurance products, and it added $2.3 billion to its reserves against losses in its commercial insurance business.
AIG also reported $6.2 billion in expenses from repaying government loans.
Investors weren't happy with AIG's news, and bid its stock down $2.07, or 7.5 percent in early trading.
The concern in the market is that AIG's insurance business, which was not the cause of its near-collapse in 2008, needs to be stronger for the company to keep repaying the government and become independent again.
New York-based American International Group Inc. said Friday it lost $65.51 per share in the last three months of 2009.
The compares to a loss of $458.99 per share in the fourth quarter of 2008.
On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters forecast a quarterly loss of $3.94 per share.
AIG was bailed out in September 2008 by the government as the financial crisis spiraled out of control.
The insurer has received aid packages with a total value of $182.5 billion from the government.
In return for that financial support, the government received an 80 percent stake in AIG.
The company was undermined by underwriting risky credit derivatives contracts.
A plunge in the value of those contracts was the primary driver of AIG's near-collapse.
AIG has been working for the past year and half to sell assets and streamline operations in an effort to repay government debt.
Since receiving government bailout funds, AIG has completed 19 unit sales or asset transactions.
It reported Friday that it continues to unwind its Financial Products Group, the unit blamed for AIG's downfall.
"Clearly we will be a smaller and more focused company than in the past," CEO Robert Benmosche said in a prerecorded message.
"The only way we can repay taxpayers is to divest parts of this organization."
Earlier this month, MetLife Inc. confirmed that it is in talks with AIG to buy one of AIG's insurance units.
Media reports price the deal at as much as $15 billion.
The two companies have been in discussions for months about a potential deal for AIG's American Life Insurance Co., known as Alico. Alico is an international life and health insurance business that operates in more than 50 countries.
AIG spokesman Mark Herr would not comment on any ongoing discussions.
On Friday, AIG said it is continuing to address funding needs and explore options for restructuring its aircraft leasing unit, International Lease Finance Corp., and its American General Finance Inc. division.
AIG also said it had decided with the agreement of its federal overseers not to use cash flows from life insurance policies to repay a $8.5 billion loan to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The company said it now believes it can pay the loan through other means, and that the decision follows a market recovery over the past year that could improve the company's debts.
"We think the combination of strategic asset sales and reviving businesses will generate sufficient funds to repay the taxpayer," Herr said.
As of Dec. 31, AIG's outstanding assistance from the government totaled $129.26 billion, up 5.7 percent from the end of the third quarter.
The higher total is due to accrued interest on the loans, the company said.
Of that outstanding assistance, AIG owes the government $94.76 billion in loans and interest, a 10.6 percent increase from the end of the third quarter.
The remaining $34.5 billion in outstanding assistance is tied to the value of investments the government bought from AIG.
As those investments pay off or rise in value, the government recoups more money. - AP
The troubled insurer also said in an annual regulatory filing that it may need additional support from the government.
However, AIG has included such warnings in past filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The fourth-quarter results were an improvement from the $61.7 billion AIG lost in the year ago period, but they were worse than analysts expected.
They also followed two straight profitable quarters.
The company reported a 2.2 percent drop in new premiums in its Chartis general insurance business, compared with a year earlier.
AIG attributed the slide in part to the weak economy.
It also had lower sales of life insurance products, and it added $2.3 billion to its reserves against losses in its commercial insurance business.
AIG also reported $6.2 billion in expenses from repaying government loans.
Investors weren't happy with AIG's news, and bid its stock down $2.07, or 7.5 percent in early trading.
The concern in the market is that AIG's insurance business, which was not the cause of its near-collapse in 2008, needs to be stronger for the company to keep repaying the government and become independent again.
New York-based American International Group Inc. said Friday it lost $65.51 per share in the last three months of 2009.
The compares to a loss of $458.99 per share in the fourth quarter of 2008.
On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters forecast a quarterly loss of $3.94 per share.
AIG was bailed out in September 2008 by the government as the financial crisis spiraled out of control.
The insurer has received aid packages with a total value of $182.5 billion from the government.
In return for that financial support, the government received an 80 percent stake in AIG.
The company was undermined by underwriting risky credit derivatives contracts.
A plunge in the value of those contracts was the primary driver of AIG's near-collapse.
AIG has been working for the past year and half to sell assets and streamline operations in an effort to repay government debt.
Since receiving government bailout funds, AIG has completed 19 unit sales or asset transactions.
It reported Friday that it continues to unwind its Financial Products Group, the unit blamed for AIG's downfall.
"Clearly we will be a smaller and more focused company than in the past," CEO Robert Benmosche said in a prerecorded message.
"The only way we can repay taxpayers is to divest parts of this organization."
Earlier this month, MetLife Inc. confirmed that it is in talks with AIG to buy one of AIG's insurance units.
Media reports price the deal at as much as $15 billion.
The two companies have been in discussions for months about a potential deal for AIG's American Life Insurance Co., known as Alico. Alico is an international life and health insurance business that operates in more than 50 countries.
AIG spokesman Mark Herr would not comment on any ongoing discussions.
On Friday, AIG said it is continuing to address funding needs and explore options for restructuring its aircraft leasing unit, International Lease Finance Corp., and its American General Finance Inc. division.
AIG also said it had decided with the agreement of its federal overseers not to use cash flows from life insurance policies to repay a $8.5 billion loan to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The company said it now believes it can pay the loan through other means, and that the decision follows a market recovery over the past year that could improve the company's debts.
"We think the combination of strategic asset sales and reviving businesses will generate sufficient funds to repay the taxpayer," Herr said.
As of Dec. 31, AIG's outstanding assistance from the government totaled $129.26 billion, up 5.7 percent from the end of the third quarter.
The higher total is due to accrued interest on the loans, the company said.
Of that outstanding assistance, AIG owes the government $94.76 billion in loans and interest, a 10.6 percent increase from the end of the third quarter.
The remaining $34.5 billion in outstanding assistance is tied to the value of investments the government bought from AIG.
As those investments pay off or rise in value, the government recoups more money. - AP
China still biggest foreign buyer of US securities at US$894bil
WASHINGTON: The government now says that China did not lose its place in December as the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt.
The Treasury Department said that under annual benchmark revisions released Friday, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities stood at US$894.8 billion at the end of December, keeping it in first place ahead of Japan.
On Feb. 16, the government reported data that showed China had been surpassed by Japan.
However, the government said in the new report that those figures did not account for purchases by Chinese investors in such places as Britain.
When those purchases are taken into account, the government said that China's holdings in December grew by $139.4 billion above what was reported on Feb. 16.
That increase put China back into first place as the top foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities at $894.8 billion followed by Japan, now back in second place, at $768.8 billion.
The revised figures represent the annual revisions Treasury makes based on a more detailed report of the actual foreign holdings of the Treasury debt.
That survey revised the figures through June 2009, and those more accurate figures were used to update the monthly reports through December 2009.
The revised figures did show that China reduced its holdings in December compared with November, a drop of $34.2 billion.
However, with the more accurate assessment of the actual ownership of the securities, the levels of China's holdings were much higher than expressed in the report two weeks ago.
The replacement of China by Japan as the largest foreign holder of Treasury securities when it was reported two weeks ago had raised worries that China was carrying through on comments it made about diversifying its holdings based on rising concerns about America's soaring federal budget deficits.
Some economists had seen the change in China's position as a warning signal that the biggest holders of U.S. debt were starting to dump those holdings.
Such a development could dramatically increase the interest bill the federal government must pay to finance its deficits and also drive up the cost of borrowing for U.S. businesses and consumers.
On Feb. 1, President Barack Obama released a budget plan that projects the deficit for this year will total a record $1.56 trillion. That would surpass last year's record of $1.4 trillion deficit, reflecting a severe recession that has cut into government revenues and increased spending to stabilize the banking system and jump-start the economy.
The administration has pledged to address the soaring deficits once the economy gets back on track.
The president by executive order last week created an 18-member deficit panel that is charged with issuing a report by December on how to reduce the annual budget deficits to 3 percent of the national economy by 2015.
Obama named four members of the panel on Friday. However, the commission is considered a weak substitute for what Obama really wanted - a commission created by Congress that could force lawmakers to vote on remedies to reduce the debt. - AP
The Treasury Department said that under annual benchmark revisions released Friday, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities stood at US$894.8 billion at the end of December, keeping it in first place ahead of Japan.
On Feb. 16, the government reported data that showed China had been surpassed by Japan.
However, the government said in the new report that those figures did not account for purchases by Chinese investors in such places as Britain.
When those purchases are taken into account, the government said that China's holdings in December grew by $139.4 billion above what was reported on Feb. 16.
That increase put China back into first place as the top foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities at $894.8 billion followed by Japan, now back in second place, at $768.8 billion.
The revised figures represent the annual revisions Treasury makes based on a more detailed report of the actual foreign holdings of the Treasury debt.
That survey revised the figures through June 2009, and those more accurate figures were used to update the monthly reports through December 2009.
The revised figures did show that China reduced its holdings in December compared with November, a drop of $34.2 billion.
However, with the more accurate assessment of the actual ownership of the securities, the levels of China's holdings were much higher than expressed in the report two weeks ago.
The replacement of China by Japan as the largest foreign holder of Treasury securities when it was reported two weeks ago had raised worries that China was carrying through on comments it made about diversifying its holdings based on rising concerns about America's soaring federal budget deficits.
Some economists had seen the change in China's position as a warning signal that the biggest holders of U.S. debt were starting to dump those holdings.
Such a development could dramatically increase the interest bill the federal government must pay to finance its deficits and also drive up the cost of borrowing for U.S. businesses and consumers.
On Feb. 1, President Barack Obama released a budget plan that projects the deficit for this year will total a record $1.56 trillion. That would surpass last year's record of $1.4 trillion deficit, reflecting a severe recession that has cut into government revenues and increased spending to stabilize the banking system and jump-start the economy.
The administration has pledged to address the soaring deficits once the economy gets back on track.
The president by executive order last week created an 18-member deficit panel that is charged with issuing a report by December on how to reduce the annual budget deficits to 3 percent of the national economy by 2015.
Obama named four members of the panel on Friday. However, the commission is considered a weak substitute for what Obama really wanted - a commission created by Congress that could force lawmakers to vote on remedies to reduce the debt. - AP
Gold Breaks the Rules
Precious metal and U.S. dollar start to trade in tandem, but for how long?
Gold's been quite the rebel lately -- and investors are giving it much more than a passing glance.
The precious metal recently broke from its usual inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar to move more in sync with the climb in the greenback, showing off its prowess as a resilient world favorite.
"Gold moving up with the dollar is a sign of tremendous strength in gold," said Sam Kirtley, chief executive officer of SK Options Trading.
More from MarketWatch.com:
• Natural-Gas Prices Settle In for the Long Haul
• Lumber's Foundation Not Set
• A Blueprint for How Euro Rift Could Heal
Gold futures prices are up nearly 5% from this month's low of $1,050 an ounce in New York. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, has also climbed, gaining more than 2% from its low in February.
"Both gold and the dollar have been trending upward since early this month," said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. "If gold and the dollar can decouple, [that would] hold important implications for the metal going forward."
And those implications are likely to be good for gold. A decoupling in the relationship would mean that "investors are not only buying gold as a U.S. dollar hedge but as a safe-haven asset too, and buying for this reason is so heavy it is outweighing the selling from U.S. dollar strength," said Kirtley.
But the direction of the precious metal and dollar are destined to diverge again -- and when they do, gold may or may not come out a winner.
The global markets are currently focusing on Europe's troubles, feeding a rally in the dollar, yet gold is still trading at around $1,100, said Kirtley. "So if gold can make gains, or even just tread water whilst the U.S. dollar rallies, it will soar if the greenback was to begin to drop."
On the other hand, "even though gold prices have been moving up with gold over the last month, if the U.S. dollar continues rallying, this will eventually flow through to have a negative impact on gold," he said. "In that case, "the biggest possible risk for gold at present is a strong, sustained rally in the U.S. dollar."
Eyes on the Metal
For now, however, the gold market's apparently changing relationship with the dollar deserves a closer look because it can offer hints for gold's next direction.
After all, "we are so used to looking at gold rising when the dollar falls that the concept of gold rising when the dollar rises seems to break the rules," Julian Phillips and Peter Spina, editors at GoldForecaster.com, said in a weekly newsletter sent Tuesday.
In most eyes, it has.
Most daily commentaries blame the inverse relationship between the gold and the dollar as the main reason for gold's moves, said Phillips and Spina.
And that "normal linkage" has been decoupled because of "worries over fiat currencies," leading traders to establish gold positions as protection against an unraveling of fiat currencies, said Charles Nedoss, a metals analyst at Olympus Futures. "This can be referred to as the 'fear trade'."
What's happening now is truly putting gold's durability on display.
"Gold's ability to rise in most major currencies is suggesting people are choosing it as an alternative to paper currencies," said Peter Grandich, a metals writer at Agoracom.com. And people are choosing the precious metal "because of the huge amount of debt the western world has piled up and the belief the only way out from under it is to reflate."
Consider, as well, that around the world, central banks have recently become net buyers of gold. That's likely just the "first inning" of these purchases, said Patrick Kerr, a managing director at Amerifutures Commodities & Options.
The central banks can buy gold now at these price levels or they can do it "later at higher prices, perhaps much higher prices," he said. The "smart" countries looking to buy gold are taking immediate action since "each day that goes by without as much gold as they can get reduces their national wealth as the fiat currencies are devalued."
There are "definitely changes brewing worldwide" and "gold is in transition right now," said Kerr.
"In a world where governments are openly devaluing their fiat currencies in an attempt to ease increasing stimulus debts and increase exports, central banks are figuring out the best way to preserve their wealth: the U.S. dollar and gold. Look for them to trade up together," he said.
However, gold may have an advantage.
Gijsbert Groenewegen, a managing partner at Silver Arrow Capital Management, points out that the dollar, which he said is likely to go higher purely for technical reasons covering the carry trade, "will not transform from a funding currency to an investment currency."
Carry trades involve borrowing funds in lower-yielding currencies, such as the dollar, and investing them in assets denominated in higher-yielding currencies. Carry trades are less attractive to investors as their appetite for risk wanes, and they liquidate their positions to avoid losses.
When investors unwinding those dollar-carry trades and are left holding the greenback, they will question why they're holding the currency when the U.S. economy is "in shambles," he said. "At that stage, investors will massively buy gold and silver."
Currency Fix
For now, investors are still interested in the dollar.
"Capital is fleeing from troubled currencies," said Phillips and Spina. "They turn to the dollar because it is the world's prime currency and one, at the moment, less in danger because of this role."
However, the fundamentals for the greenback are pointing to "trouble," Phillips and Spina warned. "When the crises really hit the dollar, all currencies ... of the monetary system [except China's yuan] will become volatile," he said.
As shown by the weakness in the euro, there are "structural dangers facing the paper currency system itself," they said. "The attempt by the eurozone to integrate so many of these politically, economically, culturally separate sovereign states was bound to suffer structural damage when a rough storm hit."
Now that the structural problems of the eurozone are exposed, "it is clear that both [the euro and dollar] face problems that should cause the gold price to rise," Phillips said in emailed comments.
Given that, "it is now in most nations' national interests to hold the gold they have in the face of the worst storm the currency system will ever see," Phillips and Spina said. "As a matter of prudence, gold is being acquired quietly, but in volume."
Warning Signs
Still, some may even argue that the dollar and gold haven't really decoupled at all.
"I don't think gold is moving up with the dollar, though there are individual days when this does occur," said Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist for VRTrader.com.
Right now, he thinks gold is following a "cyclical pattern for weakness into possibly mid-March." Afterwards, he expects prices to stage a strong rally that may take gold to new highs this summer.
Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report, wasn't quite so optimistic. "In a world where U.S. dollars are becoming relatively rare, little reason exists for the value of the dollar to fall against other currencies," he said, emphasizing that he doesn't see any decoupling between the dollar and gold.
"No inflation in the U.S. and lack of money supply growth means no inflation will arise," so the dollar will not crash and gold "will have one more rally before hitting lows in the coming summer," he said.
Then again, it may be good idea for investors to buy, if gold hits those lows between now and summer.
"Lack of money supply growth in the U.S. will force the Federal Reserve to take action by fall," Schmidt said. "That will send gold to new highs."
Gold's been quite the rebel lately -- and investors are giving it much more than a passing glance.
The precious metal recently broke from its usual inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar to move more in sync with the climb in the greenback, showing off its prowess as a resilient world favorite.
"Gold moving up with the dollar is a sign of tremendous strength in gold," said Sam Kirtley, chief executive officer of SK Options Trading.
More from MarketWatch.com:
• Natural-Gas Prices Settle In for the Long Haul
• Lumber's Foundation Not Set
• A Blueprint for How Euro Rift Could Heal
Gold futures prices are up nearly 5% from this month's low of $1,050 an ounce in New York. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, has also climbed, gaining more than 2% from its low in February.
"Both gold and the dollar have been trending upward since early this month," said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. "If gold and the dollar can decouple, [that would] hold important implications for the metal going forward."
And those implications are likely to be good for gold. A decoupling in the relationship would mean that "investors are not only buying gold as a U.S. dollar hedge but as a safe-haven asset too, and buying for this reason is so heavy it is outweighing the selling from U.S. dollar strength," said Kirtley.
But the direction of the precious metal and dollar are destined to diverge again -- and when they do, gold may or may not come out a winner.
The global markets are currently focusing on Europe's troubles, feeding a rally in the dollar, yet gold is still trading at around $1,100, said Kirtley. "So if gold can make gains, or even just tread water whilst the U.S. dollar rallies, it will soar if the greenback was to begin to drop."
On the other hand, "even though gold prices have been moving up with gold over the last month, if the U.S. dollar continues rallying, this will eventually flow through to have a negative impact on gold," he said. "In that case, "the biggest possible risk for gold at present is a strong, sustained rally in the U.S. dollar."
Eyes on the Metal
For now, however, the gold market's apparently changing relationship with the dollar deserves a closer look because it can offer hints for gold's next direction.
After all, "we are so used to looking at gold rising when the dollar falls that the concept of gold rising when the dollar rises seems to break the rules," Julian Phillips and Peter Spina, editors at GoldForecaster.com, said in a weekly newsletter sent Tuesday.
In most eyes, it has.
Most daily commentaries blame the inverse relationship between the gold and the dollar as the main reason for gold's moves, said Phillips and Spina.
And that "normal linkage" has been decoupled because of "worries over fiat currencies," leading traders to establish gold positions as protection against an unraveling of fiat currencies, said Charles Nedoss, a metals analyst at Olympus Futures. "This can be referred to as the 'fear trade'."
What's happening now is truly putting gold's durability on display.
"Gold's ability to rise in most major currencies is suggesting people are choosing it as an alternative to paper currencies," said Peter Grandich, a metals writer at Agoracom.com. And people are choosing the precious metal "because of the huge amount of debt the western world has piled up and the belief the only way out from under it is to reflate."
Consider, as well, that around the world, central banks have recently become net buyers of gold. That's likely just the "first inning" of these purchases, said Patrick Kerr, a managing director at Amerifutures Commodities & Options.
The central banks can buy gold now at these price levels or they can do it "later at higher prices, perhaps much higher prices," he said. The "smart" countries looking to buy gold are taking immediate action since "each day that goes by without as much gold as they can get reduces their national wealth as the fiat currencies are devalued."
There are "definitely changes brewing worldwide" and "gold is in transition right now," said Kerr.
"In a world where governments are openly devaluing their fiat currencies in an attempt to ease increasing stimulus debts and increase exports, central banks are figuring out the best way to preserve their wealth: the U.S. dollar and gold. Look for them to trade up together," he said.
However, gold may have an advantage.
Gijsbert Groenewegen, a managing partner at Silver Arrow Capital Management, points out that the dollar, which he said is likely to go higher purely for technical reasons covering the carry trade, "will not transform from a funding currency to an investment currency."
Carry trades involve borrowing funds in lower-yielding currencies, such as the dollar, and investing them in assets denominated in higher-yielding currencies. Carry trades are less attractive to investors as their appetite for risk wanes, and they liquidate their positions to avoid losses.
When investors unwinding those dollar-carry trades and are left holding the greenback, they will question why they're holding the currency when the U.S. economy is "in shambles," he said. "At that stage, investors will massively buy gold and silver."
Currency Fix
For now, investors are still interested in the dollar.
"Capital is fleeing from troubled currencies," said Phillips and Spina. "They turn to the dollar because it is the world's prime currency and one, at the moment, less in danger because of this role."
However, the fundamentals for the greenback are pointing to "trouble," Phillips and Spina warned. "When the crises really hit the dollar, all currencies ... of the monetary system [except China's yuan] will become volatile," he said.
As shown by the weakness in the euro, there are "structural dangers facing the paper currency system itself," they said. "The attempt by the eurozone to integrate so many of these politically, economically, culturally separate sovereign states was bound to suffer structural damage when a rough storm hit."
Now that the structural problems of the eurozone are exposed, "it is clear that both [the euro and dollar] face problems that should cause the gold price to rise," Phillips said in emailed comments.
Given that, "it is now in most nations' national interests to hold the gold they have in the face of the worst storm the currency system will ever see," Phillips and Spina said. "As a matter of prudence, gold is being acquired quietly, but in volume."
Warning Signs
Still, some may even argue that the dollar and gold haven't really decoupled at all.
"I don't think gold is moving up with the dollar, though there are individual days when this does occur," said Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist for VRTrader.com.
Right now, he thinks gold is following a "cyclical pattern for weakness into possibly mid-March." Afterwards, he expects prices to stage a strong rally that may take gold to new highs this summer.
Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report, wasn't quite so optimistic. "In a world where U.S. dollars are becoming relatively rare, little reason exists for the value of the dollar to fall against other currencies," he said, emphasizing that he doesn't see any decoupling between the dollar and gold.
"No inflation in the U.S. and lack of money supply growth means no inflation will arise," so the dollar will not crash and gold "will have one more rally before hitting lows in the coming summer," he said.
Then again, it may be good idea for investors to buy, if gold hits those lows between now and summer.
"Lack of money supply growth in the U.S. will force the Federal Reserve to take action by fall," Schmidt said. "That will send gold to new highs."
"I fought the good fight!"
"Are you in the fight?"
We aren't tourists in this world, but soldiers fighting against the forces of darkness! And Christ is calling you to get in the battle!
Take your place and endure like the good soldier you're called to be. Live in such a way that you can say, "I fought the good fight!"
We aren't tourists in this world, but soldiers fighting against the forces of darkness! And Christ is calling you to get in the battle!
Take your place and endure like the good soldier you're called to be. Live in such a way that you can say, "I fought the good fight!"
Record Winter to Distort Key Jobs Report Next Week
On Friday February 26, 2010, 4:16 pm EST
The winter conditions will hurt visibility for Wall Street traders even after their commute home today is over. The nearly unprecedented winter conditions the Northeast region and really the whole country has seen this past month could distort the biggest market-moving event of next week: the jobs report.
"For Friday's employment report, we are projecting nonfarm payrolls to decline by 75,000, although the risk is for an even weaker number since there were two major winter storms (Feb 4-6 and Feb 9-10) during the employment survey week," wrote Joe Lavorgna, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank, in a note to clients entitled "Do not be swayed by the February payroll chill."
Lavorgna is based in New York City, where the February snowfall just surpassed the previous monthly record in Central Park. As of mid-day Friday, 35.9 inches fell in February, according to the National Weather Service, surpassing the previous monthly record of 30.5 inches, set back in March 1896.
Trading The Weather: Betting on Snow and Storms
2 Stocks With Growth Potential: Strategist
The last thing the market needs is jobs data even more confusing to sort through, as the figures have become crucial to determining the direction of the stock market, according to traders.
The slowing of job losses over the last 6 months has closely tracked the stock market's rebound from its 12-year low reached in March, according to Brian Kelly, founder of Kanundrum Capital. He and others argue that the market won't restart until the economy can prove it's strong enough to actually create jobs, instead of just lose fewer. Kelly was selling short the S&P 500 SPDR (AMEX: spy) this week in part because of concern over consumer confidence and tightening credit, both side effects of joblessness.
The S&P 500 will end February about little changed to down slightly.
During the last "major weather events" in Feb. 2007, Jan. 1996 and Feb. 1994, "the subsequent print on nonfarm payrolls was notably below the three-month trend leading up to the event by roughly 100,000," wrote Lavorgna. Absent weather effects, the economist would be forecasting a gain of 85,000 jobs this Friday.
The winter conditions will hurt visibility for Wall Street traders even after their commute home today is over. The nearly unprecedented winter conditions the Northeast region and really the whole country has seen this past month could distort the biggest market-moving event of next week: the jobs report.
"For Friday's employment report, we are projecting nonfarm payrolls to decline by 75,000, although the risk is for an even weaker number since there were two major winter storms (Feb 4-6 and Feb 9-10) during the employment survey week," wrote Joe Lavorgna, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank, in a note to clients entitled "Do not be swayed by the February payroll chill."
Lavorgna is based in New York City, where the February snowfall just surpassed the previous monthly record in Central Park. As of mid-day Friday, 35.9 inches fell in February, according to the National Weather Service, surpassing the previous monthly record of 30.5 inches, set back in March 1896.
Trading The Weather: Betting on Snow and Storms
2 Stocks With Growth Potential: Strategist
The last thing the market needs is jobs data even more confusing to sort through, as the figures have become crucial to determining the direction of the stock market, according to traders.
The slowing of job losses over the last 6 months has closely tracked the stock market's rebound from its 12-year low reached in March, according to Brian Kelly, founder of Kanundrum Capital. He and others argue that the market won't restart until the economy can prove it's strong enough to actually create jobs, instead of just lose fewer. Kelly was selling short the S&P 500 SPDR (AMEX: spy) this week in part because of concern over consumer confidence and tightening credit, both side effects of joblessness.
The S&P 500 will end February about little changed to down slightly.
During the last "major weather events" in Feb. 2007, Jan. 1996 and Feb. 1994, "the subsequent print on nonfarm payrolls was notably below the three-month trend leading up to the event by roughly 100,000," wrote Lavorgna. Absent weather effects, the economist would be forecasting a gain of 85,000 jobs this Friday.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Why God Closes Doors
Jeremiah 10:23-24
A blockaded opportunity is a useful teaching tool. God's ultimate objective is to mold us into the image of His Son, and toward that end, He at times prevents us from doing or having something we desire.
• Closed doors prevent mistakes. Just because a path is clear does not mean it is the one God intends for us to follow. Sometimes we won't have the information we need to make a wise decision, so He bars the way either spiritually or physically. The Holy Spirit can see the whole road map for our lives, which is why we are to follow His guidance.
• Closed doors redirect our walk.
Rest assured, God never leaves a willing servant with nothing to do. The alternate opportunity He has in mind will yield bigger fruit, more satisfaction, and greater glory for Him.
• Closed doors test faith and build perseverance. Waiting for the Lord to speak or act is hard, particularly when our desire has been denied. But we'll learn wisdom, patience, and trust by pausing prayerfully until He reveals His will.
• Closed doors buy us time. We are not always as prepared as we'd like to think. God may temporarily hold shut an opportunity for service until a believer is properly equipped for kingdom work.
In spite of the repeated use of "closed door" in this devotion, the real message is that God opens doors. He has created a perfect pathway for us to follow. Keep your feet on it, and you will walk over thresholds leading to service, satisfaction, and glory for your Lord.
EXTRA COLUMN: Exploring the Bible
On Faith
"And He did not do many miracles there because of their unbelief" (Matt. 13:58).
"Then the disciples came to Jesus privately and said, 'Why could we not drive it out?' And He said to them, 'Because of the littleness of your faith; for truly I say to you, if you have faith the size of a mustard seed, you will say to this mountain, "Move from here to there," and it will move; and nothing will be impossible to you'" (Matt. 17:19-21).
"And he said, ' . . . If You can do anything, take pity on us and help us!' And Jesus said to him, '"If You can?" All things are possible to him who believes.' Immediately the boy's father cried out and said, 'I do believe; help my unbelief'" (Mark 9:21-24).
"And Jesus said to him, 'Receive your sight; your faith has made you well'" (Luke 18:42).
"Do not let your heart be troubled; believe in God, believe also in Me" (John 14:1).
"For we walk by faith, not by sight" (2 Cor. 5:7).
"Now faith is the assurance of things hoped for, the conviction of things not seen. And without faith it is impossible to please Him, for he who comes to God must believe that He is and that He is a rewarder of those who seek Him" (Heb. 11:1, 6).
"What use is it, my brethren, if someone says he has faith but he has no works? Can that faith save him? Just as the body without the spirit is dead, so also faith without works is dead" (James 2:14, 26).
For more biblical teaching and resources from Dr. Charles Stanley, please visit www.intouch.org
A blockaded opportunity is a useful teaching tool. God's ultimate objective is to mold us into the image of His Son, and toward that end, He at times prevents us from doing or having something we desire.
• Closed doors prevent mistakes. Just because a path is clear does not mean it is the one God intends for us to follow. Sometimes we won't have the information we need to make a wise decision, so He bars the way either spiritually or physically. The Holy Spirit can see the whole road map for our lives, which is why we are to follow His guidance.
• Closed doors redirect our walk.
Rest assured, God never leaves a willing servant with nothing to do. The alternate opportunity He has in mind will yield bigger fruit, more satisfaction, and greater glory for Him.
• Closed doors test faith and build perseverance. Waiting for the Lord to speak or act is hard, particularly when our desire has been denied. But we'll learn wisdom, patience, and trust by pausing prayerfully until He reveals His will.
• Closed doors buy us time. We are not always as prepared as we'd like to think. God may temporarily hold shut an opportunity for service until a believer is properly equipped for kingdom work.
In spite of the repeated use of "closed door" in this devotion, the real message is that God opens doors. He has created a perfect pathway for us to follow. Keep your feet on it, and you will walk over thresholds leading to service, satisfaction, and glory for your Lord.
EXTRA COLUMN: Exploring the Bible
On Faith
"And He did not do many miracles there because of their unbelief" (Matt. 13:58).
"Then the disciples came to Jesus privately and said, 'Why could we not drive it out?' And He said to them, 'Because of the littleness of your faith; for truly I say to you, if you have faith the size of a mustard seed, you will say to this mountain, "Move from here to there," and it will move; and nothing will be impossible to you'" (Matt. 17:19-21).
"And he said, ' . . . If You can do anything, take pity on us and help us!' And Jesus said to him, '"If You can?" All things are possible to him who believes.' Immediately the boy's father cried out and said, 'I do believe; help my unbelief'" (Mark 9:21-24).
"And Jesus said to him, 'Receive your sight; your faith has made you well'" (Luke 18:42).
"Do not let your heart be troubled; believe in God, believe also in Me" (John 14:1).
"For we walk by faith, not by sight" (2 Cor. 5:7).
"Now faith is the assurance of things hoped for, the conviction of things not seen. And without faith it is impossible to please Him, for he who comes to God must believe that He is and that He is a rewarder of those who seek Him" (Heb. 11:1, 6).
"What use is it, my brethren, if someone says he has faith but he has no works? Can that faith save him? Just as the body without the spirit is dead, so also faith without works is dead" (James 2:14, 26).
For more biblical teaching and resources from Dr. Charles Stanley, please visit www.intouch.org
Faith: A Fixed Focus
Genesis 39:1-20
Abiding in God's will requires a steady, trust-filled focus upon Him. The life of Joseph provides us with a good illustration.
Keeping our eyes fixed on the Lord helps us remain faithful in the midst of hardship. Joseph's brothers hated him so much that they sold him to a caravan on its way to Egypt. Upon arrival, he became the slave of Potiphar, captain of Pharaoh's guard. Joseph handled his betrayal and bondage in a godly way. Instead of becoming bitter or refusing to cooperate, he chose to perform every duty with excellence. As a result, he was promoted to oversee Potiphar's household. The entire time, Joseph kept his gaze centered on the Lord who prospered him.
Having a focus of faith allows us to avoid temptation and choose godliness instead. Potiphar's wife attempted to seduce Joseph, but he rejected her advances. When he refused to sin against God (v. 9), she falsely accused him of attacking her—and her lies were believed. Ignoring Joseph's record of hard work and faithful service, Potiphar unjustly imprisoned him. Had we been in Joseph's place, we might at this point be asking our heavenly Father why this happened—or thinking how unfairly we were being treated. However, Joseph did not turn his attention away from the Lord. His belief continued to sustain him.
Adversity reveals the substance of our faith. In hard times, we discover how much we really trust in the Lord. If doubt about God and His promises takes root in our thinking, it can lead us off His chosen path. Because of Joseph's steady belief, he recognized God's constant presence and flourished.
For more biblical teaching and resources from Dr. Charles Stanley, please visit www.intouch.org.
Abiding in God's will requires a steady, trust-filled focus upon Him. The life of Joseph provides us with a good illustration.
Keeping our eyes fixed on the Lord helps us remain faithful in the midst of hardship. Joseph's brothers hated him so much that they sold him to a caravan on its way to Egypt. Upon arrival, he became the slave of Potiphar, captain of Pharaoh's guard. Joseph handled his betrayal and bondage in a godly way. Instead of becoming bitter or refusing to cooperate, he chose to perform every duty with excellence. As a result, he was promoted to oversee Potiphar's household. The entire time, Joseph kept his gaze centered on the Lord who prospered him.
Having a focus of faith allows us to avoid temptation and choose godliness instead. Potiphar's wife attempted to seduce Joseph, but he rejected her advances. When he refused to sin against God (v. 9), she falsely accused him of attacking her—and her lies were believed. Ignoring Joseph's record of hard work and faithful service, Potiphar unjustly imprisoned him. Had we been in Joseph's place, we might at this point be asking our heavenly Father why this happened—or thinking how unfairly we were being treated. However, Joseph did not turn his attention away from the Lord. His belief continued to sustain him.
Adversity reveals the substance of our faith. In hard times, we discover how much we really trust in the Lord. If doubt about God and His promises takes root in our thinking, it can lead us off His chosen path. Because of Joseph's steady belief, he recognized God's constant presence and flourished.
For more biblical teaching and resources from Dr. Charles Stanley, please visit www.intouch.org.
Give GOD all the glory.........
Aren't we in God's debt when we disregard him? He makes the universe and we applaud science. He heals the sick and we applaud medicine. He grants beauty and we credit Mother Nature. He gives us possessions and we salute human ingenuity.
FA.......Asian stocks higher Friday as euro regains some ground
HONG KONG: Asian stock markets were mostly higher Friday, while the euro regained some ground after swooning on concerns about Greece's financial crisis.
The regional move higher came despite U.S. and European markets slipping overnight.
Oil prices headed toward $79 a barrel.
Greece's uncertain outlook as it struggles with a financial crisis has intensified broader fears over the debt mountains in other European nations.
Those concerns dragged Athens' bourse down nearly 3 percent and the euro to near a ninth-month low against the dollar.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average rose 42.92 points, or 0.4 percent, to 10144.88.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 198.41, or 1 percent, to 20,597.98, following on the upward momentum after Wall Street pared its sharp losses on Thursday.
Elsewhere, South Korea's market rose 0.3 percent and Australian shares gained 0.5 percent.
Other markets fared worse, with Shanghai and Singapore stocks losing 0.3 percent.
In currencies, the euro rose to $1.3577 from $1.3547.
The Malaysian market was closed for a national holiday.
The dollar strengthened to 89.35 yen from 89.13 yen.
Oil prices climbed in Asian trade, with benchmark crude for April delivery up 31 cents at $78.48.
The contract lost $1.83 to $78.17 overnight.
On Wall Street Thursday, the Dow fell 53.13, or 0.5 percent, to 10,321.03.
The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 2.30, or 0.2 percent, to 1,102.94.
The Nasdaq composite index fell 1.68, or 0.1 percent, to 2,234.22. - AP
The regional move higher came despite U.S. and European markets slipping overnight.
Oil prices headed toward $79 a barrel.
Greece's uncertain outlook as it struggles with a financial crisis has intensified broader fears over the debt mountains in other European nations.
Those concerns dragged Athens' bourse down nearly 3 percent and the euro to near a ninth-month low against the dollar.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average rose 42.92 points, or 0.4 percent, to 10144.88.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 198.41, or 1 percent, to 20,597.98, following on the upward momentum after Wall Street pared its sharp losses on Thursday.
Elsewhere, South Korea's market rose 0.3 percent and Australian shares gained 0.5 percent.
Other markets fared worse, with Shanghai and Singapore stocks losing 0.3 percent.
In currencies, the euro rose to $1.3577 from $1.3547.
The Malaysian market was closed for a national holiday.
The dollar strengthened to 89.35 yen from 89.13 yen.
Oil prices climbed in Asian trade, with benchmark crude for April delivery up 31 cents at $78.48.
The contract lost $1.83 to $78.17 overnight.
On Wall Street Thursday, the Dow fell 53.13, or 0.5 percent, to 10,321.03.
The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 2.30, or 0.2 percent, to 1,102.94.
The Nasdaq composite index fell 1.68, or 0.1 percent, to 2,234.22. - AP
FA...I buy ASB.....
Basic Reasons:
1. Successful in restructuring the debt burden & turning company into a
profitable business model. Net profit (FY2009=$31 million vs FY2008 = -$7
million)
2. Hotel business (under Holiday Villa brand) successfully build a
reputable brand name & securing more oversea hotel management service
contract.
3. Information and Communications Technology (ICT) business still in
growing stage & profitable.
4. New launching of property sales getting 80% taken up rate.
5. Cash status improved very well from last year.
6. Hugely undervalued price @ 0.15 against assets worth 0.98
1. Successful in restructuring the debt burden & turning company into a
profitable business model. Net profit (FY2009=$31 million vs FY2008 = -$7
million)
2. Hotel business (under Holiday Villa brand) successfully build a
reputable brand name & securing more oversea hotel management service
contract.
3. Information and Communications Technology (ICT) business still in
growing stage & profitable.
4. New launching of property sales getting 80% taken up rate.
5. Cash status improved very well from last year.
6. Hugely undervalued price @ 0.15 against assets worth 0.98
Join the Gold Club..........
....in these very uncertain economic times, invest in some gold.....gold chains/jewelery, Public Bank Gold a/c, gold wafer, gold mining stocks......
Low profile, energetic and following God's direction....
...recipe for a peaceful life....a life live right in GOD's eye.....
Low profile: be humble, modest, meek.....
Energetic: get a good night sleep, have some exercise, eat healthily.....
Following GOD's direction: let GOD give you the direction, the answer, the strength, the wisdom............
.....amen
Low profile: be humble, modest, meek.....
Energetic: get a good night sleep, have some exercise, eat healthily.....
Following GOD's direction: let GOD give you the direction, the answer, the strength, the wisdom............
.....amen
Why I trade FOREX....
One of the great benefits of the forex market is that it can accommodate both styles equally, without any additional cost to the retail trader. Since forex is a spread-based market, the cost of each transaction is the same, regardless of the size of any given trader's position.
For example, in EUR/USD, most traders would encounter a 3 pip spread equal to the cost of 3/100th of 1% of the underlying position. This cost will be uniform, in percentage terms, whether the trader wants to deal in 100-unit lots or one million-unit lots of the currency. For example, if the trader wanted to use 10,000-unit lots, the spread would amount to $3, but for the same trade using only 100-unit lots, the spread would be a mere $0.03. Contrast that with the stock market where, for example, a commission on 100 shares or 1,000 shares of a $20 stock may be fixed at $40, making the effective cost of transaction 2% in the case of 100 shares, but only 0.2% in the case of 1,000 shares. This type of variability makes it very hard for smaller traders in the equity market to scale into positions, as commissions heavily skew costs against them. However, forex traders have the benefit of uniform pricing and can practice any style of money management they choose without concern about variable transaction costs.
For example, in EUR/USD, most traders would encounter a 3 pip spread equal to the cost of 3/100th of 1% of the underlying position. This cost will be uniform, in percentage terms, whether the trader wants to deal in 100-unit lots or one million-unit lots of the currency. For example, if the trader wanted to use 10,000-unit lots, the spread would amount to $3, but for the same trade using only 100-unit lots, the spread would be a mere $0.03. Contrast that with the stock market where, for example, a commission on 100 shares or 1,000 shares of a $20 stock may be fixed at $40, making the effective cost of transaction 2% in the case of 100 shares, but only 0.2% in the case of 1,000 shares. This type of variability makes it very hard for smaller traders in the equity market to scale into positions, as commissions heavily skew costs against them. However, forex traders have the benefit of uniform pricing and can practice any style of money management they choose without concern about variable transaction costs.
A proven system will not be affected by the increasing complexities of the financial world......
So if your average equity investor is not interested in taking an online course on trading currencies or even purchase Rosetta Stone to learn French and study the intonations of Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, what are they supposed to do?
"One should trade," said Laszlo Birinyi, founder of Birinyi Associates and legendary equity trader from the Salomon Brothers heyday in the 1980s. "Some years ago - okay, many years ago - the market was primarily a function of fundamentals such as earnings, book value, dividends and the like. As time has evolved, it has become more complex."
Birinyi, in his monthly missive to clients, writes, "Today we track foreign markets, the Fed is more active, finance has globalized and has become more complex than even a few years back and already this year the market has been affected by the Chinese economy, the debt issues of both Dubai and Greece, Washington politics, oil, gold and other commodity prices, as well as the impact or alleged impact of the dollar and Euro."
"One should trade," said Laszlo Birinyi, founder of Birinyi Associates and legendary equity trader from the Salomon Brothers heyday in the 1980s. "Some years ago - okay, many years ago - the market was primarily a function of fundamentals such as earnings, book value, dividends and the like. As time has evolved, it has become more complex."
Birinyi, in his monthly missive to clients, writes, "Today we track foreign markets, the Fed is more active, finance has globalized and has become more complex than even a few years back and already this year the market has been affected by the Chinese economy, the debt issues of both Dubai and Greece, Washington politics, oil, gold and other commodity prices, as well as the impact or alleged impact of the dollar and Euro."
Stock Investors These Days Need PhD in FOREX
On Thursday February 25, 2010, 10:43 am EST
Forget the economic data such as jobless claims and durable goods today. Throw out the earnings season we just had where more than 70 percent of the S&P 500 companies exceeded analysts' expectations.
If you're not following the minute-by-minute ticks in the Euro vs. the Yen these days, you are lost as to where the direction of the U.S. stock market is headed.
After 11 months of a monster rally based on cyclical sector positioning and improving economic data, equities are now stuck in a range-bound situation, subject to the ebbs and flows of global currencies.
The Euro is down vs. the Yen today because of further concerns that Greek debt will be downgraded by the credit rating firms, jeopardizing a bailout of the country, putting the very existence of the Euro into question and triggering a series off losses European banks would face due to exposure to swaps and other securities tied to Greece and the Euro Zone.
Euro Falls on Greece Concerns; Yen Gains
US Dollar Index - Minute by Minute
That in turn puts the global economic recovery into question, boosts the dollar and weighs on the shares of the multinational corporations in the S&P 500 (INDEX: .spx).
Dennis Gartman, author of the Gartman Letter and someone who has studied the relationships between stocks and currencies long before it became fashionable, puts it more simply.
"As we write, the Yen/EUR cross is trading down toward 120 having traded 125 only a day or so ago," wrote Gartman, in his note to clients today. " The implications to be drawn from this cross for the global stock market are rather obvious, for in the past when the cross weakens
(that is, when it moves in the Yen's favour) equities prices tend to come under pressure for this cross marks the world's propensity to take on or dispose of risk. When the cross weakens, the world appears to be disposing of risk, and clearly the cross is weakening."
So if your average equity investor is not interested in taking an online course on trading currencies or even purchase Rosetta Stone to learn French and study the intonations of Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, what are they supposed to do?
"One should trade," said Laszlo Birinyi, founder of Birinyi Associates and legendary equity trader from the Salomon Brothers heyday in the 1980s. "Some years ago - okay, many years ago - the market was primarily a function of fundamentals such as earnings, book value, dividends and the like. As time has evolved, it has become more complex."
Birinyi, in his monthly missive to clients, writes, "Today we track foreign markets, the Fed is more active, finance has globalized and has become more complex than even a few years back and already this year the market has been affected by the Chinese economy, the debt issues of both Dubai and Greece, Washington politics, oil, gold and other commodity prices, as well as the impact or alleged impact of the dollar and Euro."
But Birinyi is optimistic that this misplaced focus on macro issues will create opportunity for stock pickers like himself, willing to watch their positions and trade accordingly this year. For example, he recommends buying US Steel now, but selling it when it gets to $55, as it's likely to trade back as people question the state of the global economy once again.
"We want to focus on selecting stocks because it is one of the inefficiencies in a market where everyone is looking for short cuts and opportunities to avoid 'heavy lifting', wrote Brininyi.
Forget the economic data such as jobless claims and durable goods today. Throw out the earnings season we just had where more than 70 percent of the S&P 500 companies exceeded analysts' expectations.
If you're not following the minute-by-minute ticks in the Euro vs. the Yen these days, you are lost as to where the direction of the U.S. stock market is headed.
After 11 months of a monster rally based on cyclical sector positioning and improving economic data, equities are now stuck in a range-bound situation, subject to the ebbs and flows of global currencies.
The Euro is down vs. the Yen today because of further concerns that Greek debt will be downgraded by the credit rating firms, jeopardizing a bailout of the country, putting the very existence of the Euro into question and triggering a series off losses European banks would face due to exposure to swaps and other securities tied to Greece and the Euro Zone.
Euro Falls on Greece Concerns; Yen Gains
US Dollar Index - Minute by Minute
That in turn puts the global economic recovery into question, boosts the dollar and weighs on the shares of the multinational corporations in the S&P 500 (INDEX: .spx).
Dennis Gartman, author of the Gartman Letter and someone who has studied the relationships between stocks and currencies long before it became fashionable, puts it more simply.
"As we write, the Yen/EUR cross is trading down toward 120 having traded 125 only a day or so ago," wrote Gartman, in his note to clients today. " The implications to be drawn from this cross for the global stock market are rather obvious, for in the past when the cross weakens
(that is, when it moves in the Yen's favour) equities prices tend to come under pressure for this cross marks the world's propensity to take on or dispose of risk. When the cross weakens, the world appears to be disposing of risk, and clearly the cross is weakening."
So if your average equity investor is not interested in taking an online course on trading currencies or even purchase Rosetta Stone to learn French and study the intonations of Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, what are they supposed to do?
"One should trade," said Laszlo Birinyi, founder of Birinyi Associates and legendary equity trader from the Salomon Brothers heyday in the 1980s. "Some years ago - okay, many years ago - the market was primarily a function of fundamentals such as earnings, book value, dividends and the like. As time has evolved, it has become more complex."
Birinyi, in his monthly missive to clients, writes, "Today we track foreign markets, the Fed is more active, finance has globalized and has become more complex than even a few years back and already this year the market has been affected by the Chinese economy, the debt issues of both Dubai and Greece, Washington politics, oil, gold and other commodity prices, as well as the impact or alleged impact of the dollar and Euro."
But Birinyi is optimistic that this misplaced focus on macro issues will create opportunity for stock pickers like himself, willing to watch their positions and trade accordingly this year. For example, he recommends buying US Steel now, but selling it when it gets to $55, as it's likely to trade back as people question the state of the global economy once again.
"We want to focus on selecting stocks because it is one of the inefficiencies in a market where everyone is looking for short cuts and opportunities to avoid 'heavy lifting', wrote Brininyi.
FA.....Market drops on concerns that weak US job market, Greece debt woes will stall economic rebound
By Tim Paradis and Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writers , On Thursday February 25, 2010, 5:06 pm
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks fell Thursday but closed well off their lows as investors set aside some of their concerns about Greece's rising debt.
The recovery came as the dollar pulled back from an early spike. The dollar is seen as a safe investment. So its retreat signals that by the end of the day, investors had lost some of their fears about Greece's debt problems hurting other countries.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 53 points after having fallen 188. Treasury prices, like the dollar, rose as investors sought safety.
The early slide came as the possibility of downgrades of Greece's debt fanned worries that financial troubles there will spread to other countries. The euro fell and touched a nine-month low against the dollar. Stocks often get hit when the dollar jumps because commodity prices often fall. A drop in commodity prices hurts energy and materials stocks.
Concerns about Greece have dogged investors this year but grew after credit rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's said they might further downgrade the country's debt. That would make it harder for the country to borrow.
An unexpected rise in first-time claims for unemployment insurance added to the sour mood that dominated trading early in the day and raised concerns that the labor market will worsen.
The Labor Department said first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 496,000. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast a drop in claims.
It was the second straight week that claims rose unexpectedly. High unemployment remains one of the biggest obstacles to a sustained economic recovery. The Labor Department's monthly report on employment will be released next week.
Trading in the U.S. has been choppy in recent weeks because of uneasiness about the economy. Global markets retreated earlier this month because traders were worried about Greece's debt problems. The market's drop early in the week, a rebound and the latest slide signal that investors are waiting for clearer information on the direction of the economy.
Justin Golden, a strategist at Macro Risk Advisors in New York, said there is an undercurrent of worry about long-term issues like debt in Greece. The presence of the concerns means it doesn't take much to rattle investors.
"It's a statement of how fragile the markets really are," Golden said.
The Dow fell 53.13, or 0.5 percent, to 10,321.03. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 2.30, or 0.2 percent, to 1,102.94. The Nasdaq composite index fell 1.68, or 0.1 percent, to 2,234.22.
Bond prices rose, pushing yields lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.64 percent from 3.70 percent late Wednesday.
Crude oil fell $1.83 to $78.17 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold rose.
The drop in major stock indexes masks the broad improvement in the market. For much of the day, all 30 stocks that make up the Dow were lower. In the end, five turned higher. Aluminum producer Aloca Inc. was the biggest gainer, rising 25 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $13.31.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, which is known as the market's fear gauge, ended down 0.8 percent after jumping 11.9 percent in morning trading. A rise in the VIX signals that investors are expecting swings in the market.
By the closing bell there were slightly more advancing stocks than decliners on the New York Stock Exchange. Earlier five stocks were down for every one that rose.
Jim Maguire Jr., a trader at E.H. Smith Jacobs in New York, said he expects the market to continue in the tight range it has seen this year as investors look for clues about the pace of an economic rebound.
"There is a feeling out there that this is not a self-sustaining economy as of yet and there is this expectation that the stock market is going to falter because of it," he said.
Maguire said questions about how quickly the rebound will occur is keeping traders from placing big bets after a year of enormous gains in stocks. The Dow hit a 12-year low in March last year.
"Ultimately, I think we're looking at a consolidation here and I think it could be a very long haul," he said. "The characteristics of that are typically these types of choppy markets. We get these updrafts and downdrafts."
Stocks broke a two-day losing streak on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a semiannual report to Congress that the central bank plans to keep interest rates low to help the economy. There was little reaction to his similar testimony before the Senate on Thursday.
Advancing stocks narrowly outpaced those that fell on the NYSE, where volume came to 1.1 billion shares compared with 1 billion Wednesday.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 0.03, or less than 0.1 percent, to 630.46.
Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.2 percent, Germany's DAX index dropped 1.5 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 2 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 1 percent.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks fell Thursday but closed well off their lows as investors set aside some of their concerns about Greece's rising debt.
The recovery came as the dollar pulled back from an early spike. The dollar is seen as a safe investment. So its retreat signals that by the end of the day, investors had lost some of their fears about Greece's debt problems hurting other countries.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 53 points after having fallen 188. Treasury prices, like the dollar, rose as investors sought safety.
The early slide came as the possibility of downgrades of Greece's debt fanned worries that financial troubles there will spread to other countries. The euro fell and touched a nine-month low against the dollar. Stocks often get hit when the dollar jumps because commodity prices often fall. A drop in commodity prices hurts energy and materials stocks.
Concerns about Greece have dogged investors this year but grew after credit rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Moody's said they might further downgrade the country's debt. That would make it harder for the country to borrow.
An unexpected rise in first-time claims for unemployment insurance added to the sour mood that dominated trading early in the day and raised concerns that the labor market will worsen.
The Labor Department said first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 496,000. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast a drop in claims.
It was the second straight week that claims rose unexpectedly. High unemployment remains one of the biggest obstacles to a sustained economic recovery. The Labor Department's monthly report on employment will be released next week.
Trading in the U.S. has been choppy in recent weeks because of uneasiness about the economy. Global markets retreated earlier this month because traders were worried about Greece's debt problems. The market's drop early in the week, a rebound and the latest slide signal that investors are waiting for clearer information on the direction of the economy.
Justin Golden, a strategist at Macro Risk Advisors in New York, said there is an undercurrent of worry about long-term issues like debt in Greece. The presence of the concerns means it doesn't take much to rattle investors.
"It's a statement of how fragile the markets really are," Golden said.
The Dow fell 53.13, or 0.5 percent, to 10,321.03. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 2.30, or 0.2 percent, to 1,102.94. The Nasdaq composite index fell 1.68, or 0.1 percent, to 2,234.22.
Bond prices rose, pushing yields lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.64 percent from 3.70 percent late Wednesday.
Crude oil fell $1.83 to $78.17 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold rose.
The drop in major stock indexes masks the broad improvement in the market. For much of the day, all 30 stocks that make up the Dow were lower. In the end, five turned higher. Aluminum producer Aloca Inc. was the biggest gainer, rising 25 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $13.31.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, which is known as the market's fear gauge, ended down 0.8 percent after jumping 11.9 percent in morning trading. A rise in the VIX signals that investors are expecting swings in the market.
By the closing bell there were slightly more advancing stocks than decliners on the New York Stock Exchange. Earlier five stocks were down for every one that rose.
Jim Maguire Jr., a trader at E.H. Smith Jacobs in New York, said he expects the market to continue in the tight range it has seen this year as investors look for clues about the pace of an economic rebound.
"There is a feeling out there that this is not a self-sustaining economy as of yet and there is this expectation that the stock market is going to falter because of it," he said.
Maguire said questions about how quickly the rebound will occur is keeping traders from placing big bets after a year of enormous gains in stocks. The Dow hit a 12-year low in March last year.
"Ultimately, I think we're looking at a consolidation here and I think it could be a very long haul," he said. "The characteristics of that are typically these types of choppy markets. We get these updrafts and downdrafts."
Stocks broke a two-day losing streak on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a semiannual report to Congress that the central bank plans to keep interest rates low to help the economy. There was little reaction to his similar testimony before the Senate on Thursday.
Advancing stocks narrowly outpaced those that fell on the NYSE, where volume came to 1.1 billion shares compared with 1 billion Wednesday.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 0.03, or less than 0.1 percent, to 630.46.
Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.2 percent, Germany's DAX index dropped 1.5 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 2 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 1 percent.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Trusting In Princes
Marybeth Whalen
"It is better to take refuge in the LORD than to trust in princes."
Psalm 118:9 (NIV)
Devotion:
I had looked forward to this moment for days. I sat across the table from my friend and poured out my heart about a big decision I had to make. As I looked into her eyes, I just knew she would have the wisdom I needed. I waited expectantly for her advice.
Instead of an answer to my problems I got a mini sermon. One I needed to hear. My friend pointed out that I was looking to the answer and not the Source of all answers. I thought if I just made the right choice, I would solve all my own problems. "You need to take your focus off making the right decision and trust God," she said. "No matter what you decide to do, He will still take care of you and He will accomplish His purpose for you." (from Psalm 138:8)
I nodded soberly. My friend was right. I had gotten caught up in the outcome. I was placing my trust in princes—looking to people and circumstances for the answers—instead of accepting the truth that, no matter what decision I made, God was going to take care of me. I had made the decision so uber-important that it had eclipsed God's place in my life.
I had prayed to make the right decision. I had journaled pages to Him about it. But ultimately, I reasoned, since He hadn't written the solution in the skies for me, I had to make my own choice based on what I felt was right. I had forgotten that He would still be there working all things together for my good after I made the decision, just as He had before.
If you are facing a big or little decision in your life, seek Him above all. Don't let the outcome or the opinions of others become more important that the One who "opens His hands and satisfies the desires of every living thing." (Psalm 145:16)
No matter whether you make the right decision or the wrong one, He will still be there walking with you, loving you, and helping you. Pray about your decision. Read His word. Seek out godly counsel. And then make the best decision you can. Sometimes the biggest decision is to simply make one. Place your trust in Him and rest in the fact that He will meet you on the other side of whatever decision you make.
Dear Lord, thank You that because of Your grace I know You will always be there. Thank You for the promise in Romans 8:28 that You will work all things out for good. I pray that my life brings You glory and I trust You to work in all circumstances to make that happen. Help me to place my trust in You and not in princes. In Jesus' Name, Amen.
Related Resources:
Do You Know Him?
The Reason We Speak General Editor Marybeth Whalen
Visit Marybeth Whalen's blog
For the Write Reason General Editor Marybeth Whalen
Application Steps:
Look up Psalm 57:2 and Psalm 100:3, and write them in your journal. Spend time reflecting on these verses and how they apply to your life today.
Reflections:
Are you trusting Him to work out His purposes for you today? Are you offering up whatever decisions you must make or steps you must take to Him and letting Him take care of the rest?
What "princes" in your life are throwing you off track?
Power Verses:
Psalm 146:3, "Do not put your trust in princes, in mortal men, who cannot save." (NIV)
Psalm 60:11, "Give us aid against the enemy, for the help of man is worthless." (NIV)
© 2010 by Marybeth Whalen. All rights reserved.
Proverbs 31 Ministries
616-G, Matthews-Mint Hill Road
Matthews, NC 28105
www.proverbs31.org
"It is better to take refuge in the LORD than to trust in princes."
Psalm 118:9 (NIV)
Devotion:
I had looked forward to this moment for days. I sat across the table from my friend and poured out my heart about a big decision I had to make. As I looked into her eyes, I just knew she would have the wisdom I needed. I waited expectantly for her advice.
Instead of an answer to my problems I got a mini sermon. One I needed to hear. My friend pointed out that I was looking to the answer and not the Source of all answers. I thought if I just made the right choice, I would solve all my own problems. "You need to take your focus off making the right decision and trust God," she said. "No matter what you decide to do, He will still take care of you and He will accomplish His purpose for you." (from Psalm 138:8)
I nodded soberly. My friend was right. I had gotten caught up in the outcome. I was placing my trust in princes—looking to people and circumstances for the answers—instead of accepting the truth that, no matter what decision I made, God was going to take care of me. I had made the decision so uber-important that it had eclipsed God's place in my life.
I had prayed to make the right decision. I had journaled pages to Him about it. But ultimately, I reasoned, since He hadn't written the solution in the skies for me, I had to make my own choice based on what I felt was right. I had forgotten that He would still be there working all things together for my good after I made the decision, just as He had before.
If you are facing a big or little decision in your life, seek Him above all. Don't let the outcome or the opinions of others become more important that the One who "opens His hands and satisfies the desires of every living thing." (Psalm 145:16)
No matter whether you make the right decision or the wrong one, He will still be there walking with you, loving you, and helping you. Pray about your decision. Read His word. Seek out godly counsel. And then make the best decision you can. Sometimes the biggest decision is to simply make one. Place your trust in Him and rest in the fact that He will meet you on the other side of whatever decision you make.
Dear Lord, thank You that because of Your grace I know You will always be there. Thank You for the promise in Romans 8:28 that You will work all things out for good. I pray that my life brings You glory and I trust You to work in all circumstances to make that happen. Help me to place my trust in You and not in princes. In Jesus' Name, Amen.
Related Resources:
Do You Know Him?
The Reason We Speak General Editor Marybeth Whalen
Visit Marybeth Whalen's blog
For the Write Reason General Editor Marybeth Whalen
Application Steps:
Look up Psalm 57:2 and Psalm 100:3, and write them in your journal. Spend time reflecting on these verses and how they apply to your life today.
Reflections:
Are you trusting Him to work out His purposes for you today? Are you offering up whatever decisions you must make or steps you must take to Him and letting Him take care of the rest?
What "princes" in your life are throwing you off track?
Power Verses:
Psalm 146:3, "Do not put your trust in princes, in mortal men, who cannot save." (NIV)
Psalm 60:11, "Give us aid against the enemy, for the help of man is worthless." (NIV)
© 2010 by Marybeth Whalen. All rights reserved.
Proverbs 31 Ministries
616-G, Matthews-Mint Hill Road
Matthews, NC 28105
www.proverbs31.org
Royal Bank of Scotland loses $5.5 billion for year, say bad loans may have peaked
By Robert Barr, Associated Press Writer , On Thursday February 25, 2010, 4:10 am EST
LONDON (AP) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, government-owned after being bailed out, reported a loss of 3.6 billion pounds for 2009 but beat expectations and said the peak of bad loans from the economic crisis may have passed.
CEO Stephen Hester, who along with his deputy waived any bonus for the year, cited improvements but said a "hard slog" lay ahead.
The loss compared to a 24.3 billion pounds loss, a British corporate record, racked up by RBS in 2008 following the disastrous takeover of the Dutch Bank ABN Amro. RBS wrote off 16.9 billion pounds in goodwill in 2008 related to ABN Amro and in RBS' NatWest subsidiary.
The analysts' consensus forecast was a loss of 5.7 billion pounds.
Revenue rose 34 percent to 31.7 billion pounds, up from 23.6 billion pounds in 2008. The bank booked impairment losses of 13.9 billion pounds for the year, compared to 7.4 billion in 2008.
RBS, which is 84 percent owned by the government after being bailed out during the worst of the credit crisis, said its operating loss shrank from 6.9 billion pounds in 2008 to 6.2 billion pounds.
In the fourth quarter, RBS reported a net loss of 765 million pounds, down from 1.8 billion in the third quarter.
RBS shares were up 3.4 percent at 37.35 pence as the London Stock Exchange opened.
"The spike in the share price in early trade is likely to be in reaction to the amount of bad news previously factored into the valuation," said Richard Hunter, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers.
RBS was the biggest casualty of the banking crisis in Britain, which also saw the government taking over mortgage lender Northern Rock and buying a 43 percent stake on Lloyds Banking Group.
"We have exceeded all the principal milestones we set for the first year of our plan. An 8.3 billion profit for 2009 in our core businesses provides evidence that the new RBS can deliver sustainable earnings," said Chief Executive Stephen Hester.
The "core" operating profit included 5.7 billion pounds from RBS' Global Banking and Markets investment arm, "which successfully took advantage of buoyant markets despite the handicaps of its own radical restructuring," Hester said.
"RBS is also becoming safer and smaller more quickly than we expected. We have already completed 70 percent of our planned balance sheet reduction. Most importantly, our customer base remains loyal as we implement the changes to our business," Hester said.
Hester said loan impairments of 13.1 billion pounds, compared to 6.5 billion pounds a year earlier, "may have peaked in 2009" but he cautioned that "2010 will be a year of hard slog, with limited visibility of our end value."
The pace of Britain's economic recovery and regulatory changes were key unknowns, he said.
Hester and Deputy Chief Executive Gordon Pell both waived their bonus payments for the year, but the bank won government approval to dish out 1.3 billion pounds to employees.
"On bonus payments for 2009, we were guided by a policy to pay the minimum necessary to retain and motivate staff who are critical to the recovery of RBS," the bank said.
RBS agreed in November to divest RBS Insurance, Global Merchant Services and its interest in RBS Sempra Commodities as a condition for joining the British government's asset protection scheme to insure the company against losses on 282 billion pounds of risky loans. It was also obliged to sell within four years its RBS branch network in England and Wales, and NatWest branches in Scotland.
LONDON (AP) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, government-owned after being bailed out, reported a loss of 3.6 billion pounds for 2009 but beat expectations and said the peak of bad loans from the economic crisis may have passed.
CEO Stephen Hester, who along with his deputy waived any bonus for the year, cited improvements but said a "hard slog" lay ahead.
The loss compared to a 24.3 billion pounds loss, a British corporate record, racked up by RBS in 2008 following the disastrous takeover of the Dutch Bank ABN Amro. RBS wrote off 16.9 billion pounds in goodwill in 2008 related to ABN Amro and in RBS' NatWest subsidiary.
The analysts' consensus forecast was a loss of 5.7 billion pounds.
Revenue rose 34 percent to 31.7 billion pounds, up from 23.6 billion pounds in 2008. The bank booked impairment losses of 13.9 billion pounds for the year, compared to 7.4 billion in 2008.
RBS, which is 84 percent owned by the government after being bailed out during the worst of the credit crisis, said its operating loss shrank from 6.9 billion pounds in 2008 to 6.2 billion pounds.
In the fourth quarter, RBS reported a net loss of 765 million pounds, down from 1.8 billion in the third quarter.
RBS shares were up 3.4 percent at 37.35 pence as the London Stock Exchange opened.
"The spike in the share price in early trade is likely to be in reaction to the amount of bad news previously factored into the valuation," said Richard Hunter, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers.
RBS was the biggest casualty of the banking crisis in Britain, which also saw the government taking over mortgage lender Northern Rock and buying a 43 percent stake on Lloyds Banking Group.
"We have exceeded all the principal milestones we set for the first year of our plan. An 8.3 billion profit for 2009 in our core businesses provides evidence that the new RBS can deliver sustainable earnings," said Chief Executive Stephen Hester.
The "core" operating profit included 5.7 billion pounds from RBS' Global Banking and Markets investment arm, "which successfully took advantage of buoyant markets despite the handicaps of its own radical restructuring," Hester said.
"RBS is also becoming safer and smaller more quickly than we expected. We have already completed 70 percent of our planned balance sheet reduction. Most importantly, our customer base remains loyal as we implement the changes to our business," Hester said.
Hester said loan impairments of 13.1 billion pounds, compared to 6.5 billion pounds a year earlier, "may have peaked in 2009" but he cautioned that "2010 will be a year of hard slog, with limited visibility of our end value."
The pace of Britain's economic recovery and regulatory changes were key unknowns, he said.
Hester and Deputy Chief Executive Gordon Pell both waived their bonus payments for the year, but the bank won government approval to dish out 1.3 billion pounds to employees.
"On bonus payments for 2009, we were guided by a policy to pay the minimum necessary to retain and motivate staff who are critical to the recovery of RBS," the bank said.
RBS agreed in November to divest RBS Insurance, Global Merchant Services and its interest in RBS Sempra Commodities as a condition for joining the British government's asset protection scheme to insure the company against losses on 282 billion pounds of risky loans. It was also obliged to sell within four years its RBS branch network in England and Wales, and NatWest branches in Scotland.
Japan sympathetic to tearful Toyota head despite deepening crisis in US for automaker
By Yuri Kageyama, AP Business Writer , On Thursday February 25, 2010, 4:59 am
TOKYO (AP) -- Never mind the congressional hearing. What the Japanese are riveted by is Toyota president Akio Toyoda's weepy display of emotion when he met American dealers.
The footage is being played over and over on TV news Thursday in Japan where the public has always had a soft spot for tearful executives under attack.
The latest performance to win hearts: a choked-up Toyoda barely able to finish his sentences during a meeting with dozens of Toyota dealers in Washington -- a far more receptive crowd than the skeptical lawmakers who had grilled him about the automaker's safety lapses earlier in the day.
"People are going to feel sorry for him because he had to go through a theatrical ordeal overseas, a very unusual situation for a Japanese executive," said Kuniyoshi Shirai, executive adviser at A.C.E. Consulting in Tokyo.
The Japanese don't have a monopoly on sincerity and passion, but a show of heartfelt remorse goes a long way in consensus-oriented Japan, where intentions, not just results, carry meaning.
Although tears would be a sign of weakness for an American executive, the Japanese public are swayed by emotions because empathy for a weak person is valued as an honorable trait, says Tatsumi Tanaka, president of Risk Hedge, a consultant for major companies.
"It's a special Japanese aesthetic," he said. "It's a virtue to acknowledge one's mistakes and mend one's ways, and crying is seen as a symbol of that."
Japanese protocol for corporate chiefs under fire starts with a deep bow, perhaps a resignation to take responsibility, and sometimes sobbing.
Even with rigid social definitions of femininity as a soft dependence and masculinity as a stoic silence, high-profile men crying in public draws not only surprise but also favorable reviews.
Athletes and other male celebrities often win extra marks from public weeping -- in circumstances such as winning an Olympic medal or mourning death in the family.
In 2008, Toru Hashimoto, a popular Osaka governor, got teary eyed before cameras when he was lambasted over budget cuts. Tearful company chiefs are also fairly common, exemplified by startup mogul Takafumi Horie during his 2007 trial on charges of securities laws violations.
The most memorable in the history of Japan Inc. by far was Shohei Nozawa, once president of Yamaichi Securities Co., who outright bawled at a news conference when his brokerage went bankrupt in 1997, and begged the public to show mercy to his employees.
In Japan, he was widely praised as an ideal executive.
The tears were a little more subdued for Toyoda after his appearance at the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. He had initially delegated testifying to his top U.S. executive but decided to attend after getting a formal invitation and amid media criticism.
"At the hearing, I was not alone. You and your colleagues across America, around the world, were with me," he said in English to the Toyota dealers, shaking his head and his face scrunching up as the crowd broke into applause.
Later, when a dealer told him they stood behind him, Toyoda was so overcome with emotion he practically broke down and cried.
Keiko Hamada, a 56-year-old college official, found it touching.
"I'm so worried about him. As a Japanese, I was so moved," she said. "As one Japanese, I'm rooting for Toyota."
Japan is increasingly nervous about Toyota Motor Corp.'s unfolding recall crisis, which has ballooned to more than 8.5 million cars being fixed for faulty gas pedals, floor mats and antilock braking.
Concerns are growing electronic glitches, still relatively new turf for the industry, may be behind the cases of unintended acceleration that have led to deaths and horror stories of runaway cars on highways.
Toyoda's appearance before Congress was a top news item for major Japanese broadcasters.
News shows, including those on public broadcaster NHK, showed clips of Toyoda reading introductory remarks in English and answering questions from lawmakers described as "tough."
A colorful Fuji TV morning show, which mixes entertainment and social news, characterized Toyoda as the "prince under attack," a reference to his almost royal status as grandson of the company founder.
Some analysts gave Toyoda passing marks for his performance.
"By Japanese standards, he was doing his best," said Ryoichi Shinozaki, a crisis management expert at Kyodo Public Relations Co., noting Toyoda at least avoided blatant gaffes. "He answered the questions and he appeared comfortable."
But the company's crisis was deepening because of possible defects in the electronic throttle, new investigations by federal authorities and concerns there may be cover-ups, according to Shinozaki.
"The problems aren't going away," he said after watching the hearing on TV. "The hearing is over, but the crisis is only getting more serious."
Tears and apologies will only get him so far -- and only in Japan -- possibly proving disastrous in the U.S. in the long run. Even in Japan, sentiments are fickle, and an outpouring of sympathy can turn to hostility in a flash.
In recent weeks, Toyoda has earned a new nickname that highlights a growing perception of ineptitude in handling the recall fiasco -- "child president," a sarcastic reference to Toyota's Japanese TV ads that feature a popular child actor billed as "child dealer." The moniker also takes a stab at Toyoda's privileged status as heir of a well-to-do family.
"Japanese public opinion is cruel and can shift in an instant," Shirai said. "For the U.S., an apology isn't going to be enough. As management, he needed to present specific measures."
It was only before the group of loyal dealers, who have been lobbying Congress, that Toyoda could be confident he was among allies, even for a moment.
"Words cannot express my gratitude," he said.
Associated Press Writer Kelly Olsen contributed to this report.
TOKYO (AP) -- Never mind the congressional hearing. What the Japanese are riveted by is Toyota president Akio Toyoda's weepy display of emotion when he met American dealers.
The footage is being played over and over on TV news Thursday in Japan where the public has always had a soft spot for tearful executives under attack.
The latest performance to win hearts: a choked-up Toyoda barely able to finish his sentences during a meeting with dozens of Toyota dealers in Washington -- a far more receptive crowd than the skeptical lawmakers who had grilled him about the automaker's safety lapses earlier in the day.
"People are going to feel sorry for him because he had to go through a theatrical ordeal overseas, a very unusual situation for a Japanese executive," said Kuniyoshi Shirai, executive adviser at A.C.E. Consulting in Tokyo.
The Japanese don't have a monopoly on sincerity and passion, but a show of heartfelt remorse goes a long way in consensus-oriented Japan, where intentions, not just results, carry meaning.
Although tears would be a sign of weakness for an American executive, the Japanese public are swayed by emotions because empathy for a weak person is valued as an honorable trait, says Tatsumi Tanaka, president of Risk Hedge, a consultant for major companies.
"It's a special Japanese aesthetic," he said. "It's a virtue to acknowledge one's mistakes and mend one's ways, and crying is seen as a symbol of that."
Japanese protocol for corporate chiefs under fire starts with a deep bow, perhaps a resignation to take responsibility, and sometimes sobbing.
Even with rigid social definitions of femininity as a soft dependence and masculinity as a stoic silence, high-profile men crying in public draws not only surprise but also favorable reviews.
Athletes and other male celebrities often win extra marks from public weeping -- in circumstances such as winning an Olympic medal or mourning death in the family.
In 2008, Toru Hashimoto, a popular Osaka governor, got teary eyed before cameras when he was lambasted over budget cuts. Tearful company chiefs are also fairly common, exemplified by startup mogul Takafumi Horie during his 2007 trial on charges of securities laws violations.
The most memorable in the history of Japan Inc. by far was Shohei Nozawa, once president of Yamaichi Securities Co., who outright bawled at a news conference when his brokerage went bankrupt in 1997, and begged the public to show mercy to his employees.
In Japan, he was widely praised as an ideal executive.
The tears were a little more subdued for Toyoda after his appearance at the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. He had initially delegated testifying to his top U.S. executive but decided to attend after getting a formal invitation and amid media criticism.
"At the hearing, I was not alone. You and your colleagues across America, around the world, were with me," he said in English to the Toyota dealers, shaking his head and his face scrunching up as the crowd broke into applause.
Later, when a dealer told him they stood behind him, Toyoda was so overcome with emotion he practically broke down and cried.
Keiko Hamada, a 56-year-old college official, found it touching.
"I'm so worried about him. As a Japanese, I was so moved," she said. "As one Japanese, I'm rooting for Toyota."
Japan is increasingly nervous about Toyota Motor Corp.'s unfolding recall crisis, which has ballooned to more than 8.5 million cars being fixed for faulty gas pedals, floor mats and antilock braking.
Concerns are growing electronic glitches, still relatively new turf for the industry, may be behind the cases of unintended acceleration that have led to deaths and horror stories of runaway cars on highways.
Toyoda's appearance before Congress was a top news item for major Japanese broadcasters.
News shows, including those on public broadcaster NHK, showed clips of Toyoda reading introductory remarks in English and answering questions from lawmakers described as "tough."
A colorful Fuji TV morning show, which mixes entertainment and social news, characterized Toyoda as the "prince under attack," a reference to his almost royal status as grandson of the company founder.
Some analysts gave Toyoda passing marks for his performance.
"By Japanese standards, he was doing his best," said Ryoichi Shinozaki, a crisis management expert at Kyodo Public Relations Co., noting Toyoda at least avoided blatant gaffes. "He answered the questions and he appeared comfortable."
But the company's crisis was deepening because of possible defects in the electronic throttle, new investigations by federal authorities and concerns there may be cover-ups, according to Shinozaki.
"The problems aren't going away," he said after watching the hearing on TV. "The hearing is over, but the crisis is only getting more serious."
Tears and apologies will only get him so far -- and only in Japan -- possibly proving disastrous in the U.S. in the long run. Even in Japan, sentiments are fickle, and an outpouring of sympathy can turn to hostility in a flash.
In recent weeks, Toyoda has earned a new nickname that highlights a growing perception of ineptitude in handling the recall fiasco -- "child president," a sarcastic reference to Toyota's Japanese TV ads that feature a popular child actor billed as "child dealer." The moniker also takes a stab at Toyoda's privileged status as heir of a well-to-do family.
"Japanese public opinion is cruel and can shift in an instant," Shirai said. "For the U.S., an apology isn't going to be enough. As management, he needed to present specific measures."
It was only before the group of loyal dealers, who have been lobbying Congress, that Toyoda could be confident he was among allies, even for a moment.
"Words cannot express my gratitude," he said.
Associated Press Writer Kelly Olsen contributed to this report.
FA...Asian and European stock markets fall as Greece debt crisis weighs; Tokyo down 1 pct
By Jeremiah Marquez, AP Business Writer , On Thursday February 25, 2010, 4:55 am
HONG KONG (AP) -- World stock markets dropped along with the euro Thursday amid growing concerns about Greece's ability to bring its debt crisis under control.
Major markets in Asia were down around 1 percent or less and European shares opened lower. The euro fell to near its lowest point against the dollar in about nine months before recouping some losses. Oil prices slipped below $80 a barrel.
Despite solid overnight gains in the U.S. and Europe, Asian stocks were unable to hold their early advance as Greece's crisis and the prospect of spillover effects led investors to cut back their bullish bets.
Standard & Poor's, one of the three leading credit ratings agencies, warned Wednesday it could cut its rating on the country within a month. Meanwhile, Greece convulsed with labor protests over austerity measures demanded by the European Union to ease the crisis.
"The market is questioning whether Greece will have the willpower to implement the cuts," said Khiem Do, a Hong Kong-based fund manager who helps oversee more than $10 billion in Asian equities at Baring Asset Management. "They don't trust that Greece will drink the bitter medicine it needs."
Worries about Greece outweighed more assurances from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke borrowing costs will stay at rock-bottom lows. Speaking to lawmakers, Bernanke said low rates were needed "for an extended period" to help keep the economic recovery on track and Americans hard-hit by high unemployment and falling housing prices.
As trading opened in Europe, markets in Britain and Germany shed 0.2 percent, and France's CAC-40 dropped 0.3 percent. Wall Street was set to open down after U.S. futures fell.
Earlier in Asia, the Nikkei 225 stock average fell 96.87 points, or 1 percent, to 10,101.96. Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. edged down 0.2 percent after president Akio Toyoda, appearing before U.S. lawmakers, apologized for safety lapses that have led to deaths and widespread recalls.
South Korea's Kospi lost 1.6 percent to 1,587.51 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3 percent to 20,399.57.
Elsewhere, Australia's market dropped 1.2 percent while India's market gained 0.1 percent. Shanghai's benchmark defied the downward swing, rising 1.3 percent.
The euro fell to $1.3484 from $1.3534, hitting a low of $1.3452 during the session. The dollar slid to 89.40 yen from 90.10 yen.
In oil, benchmark crude of April delivery was changing hands at $79.59 a barrel, down 41 cents from the previous session. The contract gained $1.14 overnight.
Wednesday on Wall Street, the Dow rose 91.75, or 0.9 percent, to 10,374.16. The advance pared the Dow's loss for the week to 28 points.
The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 10.64, or 1 percent, to 1,105.24, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 22.46, or 1 percent, to 2,235.90.
HONG KONG (AP) -- World stock markets dropped along with the euro Thursday amid growing concerns about Greece's ability to bring its debt crisis under control.
Major markets in Asia were down around 1 percent or less and European shares opened lower. The euro fell to near its lowest point against the dollar in about nine months before recouping some losses. Oil prices slipped below $80 a barrel.
Despite solid overnight gains in the U.S. and Europe, Asian stocks were unable to hold their early advance as Greece's crisis and the prospect of spillover effects led investors to cut back their bullish bets.
Standard & Poor's, one of the three leading credit ratings agencies, warned Wednesday it could cut its rating on the country within a month. Meanwhile, Greece convulsed with labor protests over austerity measures demanded by the European Union to ease the crisis.
"The market is questioning whether Greece will have the willpower to implement the cuts," said Khiem Do, a Hong Kong-based fund manager who helps oversee more than $10 billion in Asian equities at Baring Asset Management. "They don't trust that Greece will drink the bitter medicine it needs."
Worries about Greece outweighed more assurances from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke borrowing costs will stay at rock-bottom lows. Speaking to lawmakers, Bernanke said low rates were needed "for an extended period" to help keep the economic recovery on track and Americans hard-hit by high unemployment and falling housing prices.
As trading opened in Europe, markets in Britain and Germany shed 0.2 percent, and France's CAC-40 dropped 0.3 percent. Wall Street was set to open down after U.S. futures fell.
Earlier in Asia, the Nikkei 225 stock average fell 96.87 points, or 1 percent, to 10,101.96. Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. edged down 0.2 percent after president Akio Toyoda, appearing before U.S. lawmakers, apologized for safety lapses that have led to deaths and widespread recalls.
South Korea's Kospi lost 1.6 percent to 1,587.51 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3 percent to 20,399.57.
Elsewhere, Australia's market dropped 1.2 percent while India's market gained 0.1 percent. Shanghai's benchmark defied the downward swing, rising 1.3 percent.
The euro fell to $1.3484 from $1.3534, hitting a low of $1.3452 during the session. The dollar slid to 89.40 yen from 90.10 yen.
In oil, benchmark crude of April delivery was changing hands at $79.59 a barrel, down 41 cents from the previous session. The contract gained $1.14 overnight.
Wednesday on Wall Street, the Dow rose 91.75, or 0.9 percent, to 10,374.16. The advance pared the Dow's loss for the week to 28 points.
The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 10.64, or 1 percent, to 1,105.24, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 22.46, or 1 percent, to 2,235.90.
Why I trade FOREX?
......because my ROI on shares investment for the past 17years was more than -100%...........time to change ship....
Also petitions for children so they won’t have to bear burden of legacy
updated 7:49 p.m. ET Feb. 24, 2010
NEW YORK - One of Bernard Madoff's daughters-in-law says she and her children shouldn't have to bear the burden of his name.
Stephanie Madoff filed court papers in Manhattan on Wednesday asking to change her last name to Morgan. She made the same request for her two children.
She's married to the jailed financier's son, Mark. She says her family has gotten threats, and she wants to drop the Madoff name to avoid "additional humiliation" and harassment. Her lawyer declined to comment.
Mark Madoff says in court papers he doesn't object.
Bernard Madoff is serving a 150-year prison sentence after admitting he cheated investors out of billions of dollars through an investment Ponzi scheme. His lawyer didn't immediately return a call Wednesday.
NEW YORK - One of Bernard Madoff's daughters-in-law says she and her children shouldn't have to bear the burden of his name.
Stephanie Madoff filed court papers in Manhattan on Wednesday asking to change her last name to Morgan. She made the same request for her two children.
She's married to the jailed financier's son, Mark. She says her family has gotten threats, and she wants to drop the Madoff name to avoid "additional humiliation" and harassment. Her lawyer declined to comment.
Mark Madoff says in court papers he doesn't object.
Bernard Madoff is serving a 150-year prison sentence after admitting he cheated investors out of billions of dollars through an investment Ponzi scheme. His lawyer didn't immediately return a call Wednesday.
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