Saturday, August 15, 2009

How to Trade the Euro Fundamentals

As you can see from this graph, member countries Germany, France, Italy, and Spain make up over 75% of the Eurozone's GDP. As a result of this economic data out of these countries has the tendency to move the Euro the most, so traders naturally pay them more attention.

There are literally thousands of economic numbers released in the Eurozone however, like we covered in module 3 of this course, those that affect the current account (trade flows) or interest rates (capital flows) are going to have the greatest potential to move the currency. All of the indicators which we cover in module 8 of our basics of trading course, have a counterpart in the EU. Most of the time they are also named the same, and as they show the same things, traders can expect the market to react accordingly. The only thing to keep in mind here is that the economic climate in the United States vs. the Eurozone will differ at times, so traders and therefore the market may react differently to the same number out of the EU than they do out of the US.The second thing that it is important to understand about EU economic releases, is the different mandate of the European Central Bank, versus the Federal Reserve. Where the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maximizing employment and maintaining price stability, the ECB's mandate is solely to maintain price stability. With this in mind, the ECB is normally seen as more hawkish than the federal reserve, meaning they are more likely to hold steady or raise interest rates when economic data show price increases, and less likely to cut interest rates as quickly as the fed when growth in the Eurozone slows.

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